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Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd HK$0.36, price HK$0.16, upside +123.3%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG892541098

TS Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Top Spring International Holdings Ltd

3688 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.3572 · Strongly undervalued (+123.3%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +20.1 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/8)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.39 HK$0.1600 Fair Value HK$0.3572 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1600 – HK$1.39 · fair‑value band HK$0.2677 – HK$0.5327 · the HK$0.1600 price screens below the HK$0.3572 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Top Spring International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a real estate property developer in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management and Related Services, and Education Related Services.

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Top Spring International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a real estate property developer in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management and Related Services, and Education Related Services. It develops and operates urban mixed-use communities; and develops and sells residential and commercial properties. The company also leases shopping arcades, club houses, serviced apartments, and car park units. In addition, it provides property management and related services to purchasers and tenants; decoration services; and education related services and products to students. The company was formerly known as Top Spring Holdings Limited and changed its name to Top Spring International Holdings Limited in September 2009. Top Spring International Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) currently trades at HK$0.1600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3572, implying the stock looks roughly 55.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.2677 (bear) to HK$0.5327 (bull), the price of HK$0.1600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Top Spring International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.4B in FY2025 versus HK$639M in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.9B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$339M (≈ $43.2M) · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.4900 · Net margin −214% · Return on equity −67.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.1% · Operating margin −159% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.4B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 123%, 3688 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.2677 Fair Value HK$0.3572 Bull HK$0.5327
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.17 HK$1.56 HK$2.33 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.17 HK$1.56 HK$2.33 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −18.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.8% (2020) → −80.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +123.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −158.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −32.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.06× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)47 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.00 HK$71.49 +55%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹683.00 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.56 ¥5.87 +6%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 HK$19.39 HK$8.31 −57%
CTP N.V CTPNV €12.90 €10.46 −19%

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Top Spring International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3572 +55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Top Spring International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3688

Frequently asked questions

Is Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3572 versus a price of HK$0.1600, about +123% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3688?
Our model-based fair value for Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3572 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1600.
What is the quality score of 3688?
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3572 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2677, optimistic scenario HK$0.5327. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Top Spring International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3572, about +123% upside versus a price of HK$0.1600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2677, optimistic scenario HK$0.5327. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Top Spring International Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3572 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Top Spring International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3688 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1600, fair value HK$0.3572, a gap of about +123% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3688?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3572). For Top Spring International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.1972 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Top Spring International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Top Spring International Holdings Ltd at about HK$339M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1600; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3572 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3688?
Our models span a range for Top Spring International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2677, base HK$0.3572, optimistic HK$0.5327 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Balance-sheet figures for Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −67.4%, debt of 1.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3688 from its 52-week high?
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1600, about 70% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5300 and at the low of HK$0.1600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3572 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Top Spring International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Top Spring International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1600, calculated fair value HK$0.3572 (+123%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3688 calculated?
We run Top Spring International Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3572, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Top Spring International Holdings Ltd currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1600. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3572, about +123% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Top Spring International Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2677). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2677 to HK$0.5327) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The market capitalisation of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is HK$339M (≈ $43.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Earnings per share at Top Spring International Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.4900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The net margin of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is −214% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is −67.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is −4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
The operating margin of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is −159% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Revenue at Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is growing −32.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688)?
Earnings per share at Top Spring International Holdings Ltd are growing +275% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) generate?
The free cash flow of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is −HK$80.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) carry?
The net debt of Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is HK$4.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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