Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$339M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.3701 to HK$0.3606 (−2.6%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −8.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2700 to HK$0.5381) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2270 – HK$1.42 · fair‑value band HK$0.2700 – HK$0.5381 · the HK$0.2600 price screens below the HK$0.3606 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (3688) currently trades at HK$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3606, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$1.4B. Revenue declined 32.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -67.4%. Net debt stands at HK$4.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2700 (bear case) to HK$0.5381 (bull case); at HK$0.2600, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 39%, 3688 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Top Spring International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a real estate property developer in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management and Related Services, and Education Related Services.
Full company description
Top Spring International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a real estate property developer in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management and Related Services, and Education Related Services. It develops and operates urban mixed-use communities; and develops and sells residential and commercial properties. The company also leases shopping arcades, club houses, serviced apartments, and car park units. In addition, it provides property management and related services to purchasers and tenants; decoration services; and education related services and products to students. The company was formerly known as Top Spring Holdings Limited and changed its name to Top Spring International Holdings Limited in September 2009. Top Spring International Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.4B in FY2025 versus HK$639M in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.9B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 591 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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