CiDi Inc (3881) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CiDi Inc HK$2.92, price HK$19.78, upside -85.2%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch CiDi Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range HK$17.19 – HK$33.92 · fair‑value band HK$1.93 – HK$3.65 · the HK$19.78 price screens above the HK$2.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow CiDi in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether CiDi is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
CiDi Inc. develops and provides intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China. It engages in the research and development of closed-environment autonomous driving trucks for mining and logistics, V2X (vehicle-to-everything) technologies, and intelligent perception solutions.
Show more
CiDi Inc. develops and provides intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China. It engages in the research and development of closed-environment autonomous driving trucks for mining and logistics, V2X (vehicle-to-everything) technologies, and intelligent perception solutions. The company was formerly known as Cidi Intelligent Driving (Hunan) Co., Ltd. CiDi Inc. was founded in 2017 and is based in Changsha, China.
Stock analysis
CiDi Inc (3881) currently trades at HK$19.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.92, 85.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$1.93 (bear) to HK$3.65 (bull), the price of HK$19.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CiDi Inc reported revenue of 885M CNY in FY2025 versus 31.1M CNY in FY2022, a compound +205.4%/yr. Reported net income was −1.0B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$8.4B (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 10.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$−27.92 · Net margin −115% · Return on equity −334% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.7% · Operating margin −109% · Revenue (TTM) 885M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −85%, 3881 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.93Fair Value HK$2.92Bull HK$3.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+115.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+205.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−663.9% (2022) → −106.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−25.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−115.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−109.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth214.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.62× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.21× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CiDi Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3881
Frequently asked questions
Is CiDi Inc (3881) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.92 versus a price of HK$19.78, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3881?
Our model-based fair value for CiDi Inc is HK$2.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$19.78.
What is the quality score of 3881?
CiDi Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CiDi Inc (3881)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.93, optimistic scenario HK$3.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CiDi Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.92, about −85% upside versus a price of HK$19.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.93, optimistic scenario HK$3.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CiDi Inc (3881)?
CiDi Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 885M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CiDi Inc (3881)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CiDi Inc it is HK$2.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$19.78. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CiDi Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3881 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$19.78, fair value HK$2.92, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3881?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$19.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.92). For CiDi Inc the two are HK$16.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CiDi Inc worth?
The market values CiDi Inc at about HK$8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$19.78; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3881?
Our models span a range for CiDi Inc: cautious scenario HK$1.93, base HK$2.92, optimistic HK$3.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$19.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of CiDi Inc (3881)?
Balance-sheet figures for CiDi Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −333.8%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to CiDi Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CiDi Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$19.78, calculated fair value HK$2.92 (−85%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3881 calculated?
We run CiDi Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CiDi Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$19.78. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.92, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CiDi Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.93 to HK$3.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CiDi Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The market capitalisation of CiDi Inc is HK$8.4B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CiDi Inc is 10.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CiDi Inc (3881)?
Earnings per share at CiDi Inc are HK$−27.92. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The net margin of CiDi Inc is −115% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CiDi Inc is −334% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CiDi Inc (3881)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CiDi Inc is −24.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CiDi Inc (3881)?
The operating margin of CiDi Inc is −109% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CiDi Inc (3881)?
Revenue at CiDi Inc is growing +215% versus a year earlier (3y avg +205%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does CiDi Inc (3881) generate?
The free cash flow of CiDi Inc is −322M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
Free · no account needed
Watch CiDi Inc in the live analysis
One click puts CiDi Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
