Nagacorp Ltd (3918) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$15.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −4.0% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$1.03 to HK$1.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.46 – HK$8.91 · fair‑value band HK$1.03 – HK$1.93 · the HK$3.47 price screens above the HK$1.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nagacorp Ltd (3918) currently trades at HK$3.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.54, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nagacorp Ltd generated revenue of HK$666M at a net margin of 46.5%. Revenue grew 36.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$188M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.03 (bear case) to HK$1.93 (bull case); at HK$3.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -56%, 3918 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.13) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations.
Full company description
NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations. The company owns, manages, and operates NagaWorld, an integrated hotel and entertainment complex that consists of gaming tables, electronic gaming machines, public gaming areas, VIP referral halls, suites and rooms, food and beverage outlets, a live performance venue, event spaces, and a shopping mall. It also engages in the provision of management consulting; management of aircraft; transportation support activities; travel agency services; and employment placement agency services. In addition, it is involved in property development and investment activities; and the operation of a retail business and a football club. Further, the company manages NagaCity Walk project; and engages in culture tourism center activities. NagaCorp Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is based in Phnom Penh, the Kingdom of Cambodia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nagacorp Ltd reported revenue of HK$711M in FY2025 versus HK$226M in FY2021, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$310M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
3918 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $45.68 | $51.60 | +13% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$40.46 | +18% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$14.34 | HK$2.05 | -86% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $43.98 | $17.73 | -60% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $102.97 | $69.39 | -33% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $63.09 | $18.01 | -71% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $82.98 | $151.24 | +82% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.74 | $80.92 | +172% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6400 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +8% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $148.36 | $132.94 | -10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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