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China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$9.2B

CB China BlueChemical Ltd. 3983 · HK
PriceHK$2.13
Fair ValueHK$3.43
Upside+61.0%
Quality59/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.57% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$2.40 – HK$4.39 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +3.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 61% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$2.40 to HK$4.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.27 HK$1.08 Fair Value HK$3.43 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.08 – HK$3.27 · fair‑value band HK$2.40 – HK$4.39 · the HK$2.13 price screens below the HK$3.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983) currently trades at HK$2.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.43, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China BlueChemical Ltd. generated revenue of HK$12.0B at a net margin of 8.1%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at HK$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.40 (bear case) to HK$4.39 (bull case); at HK$2.13, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at 61%, 3983 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.16 HK$2.97 HK$4.02 80
Residual Income HK$3.12 HK$3.17 HK$3.03 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.69 HK$2.49 HK$3.36 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.10 HK$2.98 HK$4.17 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.63 HK$3.72 HK$5.20 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.69 HK$2.46 HK$3.40 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.05 HK$3.10 HK$4.27 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.25 HK$3.46 HK$4.65 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.79 HK$2.50 HK$3.35 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.05 HK$2.92 HK$3.97 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.17 HK$3.15 HK$4.24 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.44 HK$3.34 HK$4.29 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8100 HK$1.05 46
EPV HK$1.05 HK$1.22 HK$1.36 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.06 HK$1.75 HK$2.52 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.06 HK$1.54 HK$2.05 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.70 HK$3.59 HK$4.49 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.70 HK$3.59 HK$4.49 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.70 HK$3.59 HK$4.49 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.78 HK$2.38 HK$2.98 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.32 HK$3.09 HK$3.87 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.54 HK$2.21 HK$2.88 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.04 HK$2.74 HK$4.09 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.16 HK$2.97 HK$4.02 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.69 HK$2.49 HK$3.36 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.12 HK$3.17 HK$3.03 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.05 HK$1.22 HK$1.36 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.06 HK$2.95 HK$3.83 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$3.09) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$12.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.1%
Net margin 8.1%
Return on equity 5.7%
Free cash flow HK$966M FY2025
P/E ratio 8.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 3.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1400
Dividend yield 5.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -13.2%
Net debt HK$1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China BlueChemical Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the processing of natural gas and the development, production, and sale of chemical fertilizers and chemical products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through Urea, Methanol, Phosphorus and Compound Fertiliser, Acrylonitrile, and Others segments.

Full company description

China BlueChemical Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the processing of natural gas and the development, production, and sale of chemical fertilizers and chemical products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through Urea, Methanol, Phosphorus and Compound Fertiliser, Acrylonitrile, and Others segments. It offers urea; methanol; phosphorus fertilizers, including mono-ammonium phosphate and di-ammonium phosphate; compound fertilizers; and acrylonitrile and related products. The company also manufactures and sells chemical fertilizers, and woven plastic bags. In addition, it is involved in port operations; provision of transportation services and overseas shipping services; and trading of fertilizers, chemicals, and coal and coal products, as well as mining of coal. Further, the company engages in mining and processing phosphorus; manufacturing and sales of phosphorus ore and chemical products; manufacture and sale of methanol; Manufacturing and sales of high-value fluorochemicals; woven plastic bags are made of plastic resins; and manufacturing and sale methyl methacrylate. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China BlueChemical Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China BlueChemical Ltd. reported revenue of HK$12.0B in FY2025 versus HK$13.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$974M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$12.0B
Latest YoY
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Revenue −2.6%/yr
FY21 HK$13.4B
FY22 HK$14.3B
FY23 HK$13.0B
FY24 HK$11.9B
FY25 HK$12.0B
Net income −10.2%/yr
FY21 HK$1.5B
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$2.4B
FY24 HK$1.1B
FY25 HK$974M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +12.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.5 pp

of which total revenue +1.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −3.2 pp
Tax rate +1.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +13.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China BlueChemical Ltd. · Fair Value
HK$3.43 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China BlueChemical Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3983

Peer Group

Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside +61% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.49× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.43× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 24
FUTURE 21 · sector 41
PAST 23 · sector 24
HEALTH 98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.43 versus a price of HK$2.13, about +61% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3983?
Our model-based fair value for China BlueChemical Ltd. is HK$3.43 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.13.
What is the quality score of 3983?
China BlueChemical Ltd. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983)?
China BlueChemical Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3983?
The net profit margin of China BlueChemical Ltd. is about 8.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China BlueChemical Ltd. pay a dividend?
China BlueChemical Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.57% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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