Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd (3990) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$3.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.71 to HK$6.33 (−5.7%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −12.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 155% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.23 – HK$11.81 · fair‑value band HK$4.55 – HK$8.10 · the HK$2.48 price screens below the HK$6.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd (3990) currently trades at HK$2.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.33, implying the stock looks roughly 155.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.1B at a net margin of 13.5%. Revenue declined 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$862M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.55 (bear case) to HK$8.10 (bull case); at HK$2.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 155%, 3990 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$9.49) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Midea Real Estate Holding Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Project Management Services Business; Property Management Services Business; Asset Operation Business; and Real Estate Technology Business.
Full company description
Midea Real Estate Holding Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Project Management Services Business; Property Management Services Business; Asset Operation Business; and Real Estate Technology Business. It offers project management services primarily to property owners, such as project planning, design coordination, and construction supervision, as well as sales and marketing support; property management and value-added services, including consultancy services, cleaning, greening, repair and maintenance services, sales of goods, and leasing agency services for unsold parking spaces and properties for residential, commercial, and other types of properties; and community living services and brokerage services. The company also engages in designing, constructing, operating, or selling commercial properties and industrial parks; delivering commercial leasing and operational solutions; and manufacturing and sale of precast concrete, modular integrated construction, and other industrial components and materials. In addition, it provides intelligent space solutions comprising equipment and product procurement, and customized installation. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Foshan, the People's Republic of China. Midea Real Estate Holding Limited operates as a subsidiary of Midea Development Holding (BVI) Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd reported revenue of HK$4.1B in FY2025 versus HK$73.7B in FY2021, a compound −51.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$559M in FY2025, compounding −37.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 591 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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