Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Saudi Real Estate Co. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.26 SAR – 28.25 SAR · fair‑value band 19.74 SAR – 61.75 SAR · the 15.32 SAR price screens below the 37.93 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Saudi Real Estate Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in Saudi Arabia. It operates through Rental sector, Property Sales Sector, Infrastructure Projects Sector, Construction Projects Sector, and Facility management sector segments.
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Saudi Real Estate Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in Saudi Arabia. It operates through Rental sector, Property Sales Sector, Infrastructure Projects Sector, Construction Projects Sector, and Facility management sector segments. The company engages in the acquiring, developing, leasing, and selling of buildable land, constructing residential, and commercial buildings; purchasing, producing, selling, and leasing materials and equipment; and provision of project management and real estate brokerage services. It is also involved in the construction of roads, bridges, tunnels, and construction, extension, cleaning, maintenance, and operation of water, sewerage, and stormwater networks, drainage networks; as well as creation and extension of electric power distribution networks and gas networks and stations.In addition, it engages in the purchase, sale, and lease of land and real estate; development and real estate investment activities; and construction of residential and non-residential buildings, shopping centers, hospitals, entertainment venues, and commercial spaces. Saudi Real Estate Company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) currently trades at 15.32 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 37.93 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 59.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 45.67 SAR per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the 15.32 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.47 SAR, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 19.74 SAR (bear) to 61.75 SAR (bull), the price of 15.32 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Saudi Real Estate Co. reported revenue of 1.9B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.0B SAR in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was 296M SAR in FY2025, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.7B SAR (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 1.42 · EPS (TTM) 1.70 SAR · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin −11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 148%, 4020 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 19.74 SARFair Value 37.93 SARBull 61.75 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.20 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.3%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−24% → 32%
2025 sits 131% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 539 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+14% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)39% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−49% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Real Estate Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4020
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 37.93 SAR versus a price of 15.32 SAR, about +148% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4020?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Real Estate Co. is 37.93 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.32 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4020?
Saudi Real Estate Co. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 37.93 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 19.74 SAR, optimistic scenario 61.75 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Real Estate Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 37.93 SAR, about +148% upside versus a price of 15.32 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 19.74 SAR, optimistic scenario 61.75 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Saudi Real Estate Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Real Estate Co. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4020 use?
Our models discount Saudi Real Estate Co. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Real Estate Co. that is -6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Real Estate Co. grew +30.3 % a year. The price currently implies -6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Real Estate Co. (-6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.58 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Real Estate Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Real Estate Co. it is 37.93 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 15.32 SAR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Real Estate Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4020 trades below its calculated fair value: price 15.32 SAR, fair value 37.93 SAR, a gap of about +148% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4020?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.32 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (37.93 SAR). For Saudi Real Estate Co. the two are 22.61 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Real Estate Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Real Estate Co. at about 5.7B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 15.32 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 37.93 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4020?
Our models span a range for Saudi Real Estate Co.: cautious scenario 19.74 SAR, base 37.93 SAR, optimistic 61.75 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 15.32 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4020?
Saudi Real Estate Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 37.93 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Real Estate Co. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4020 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Real Estate Co. trades at 15.32 SAR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 19.56 SAR and 25% above the low of 12.30 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 37.93 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Real Estate Co.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Real Estate Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 15.32 SAR, calculated fair value 37.93 SAR (+148%), Quality Score 64/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4020 calculated?
We run Saudi Real Estate Co. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 37.93 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Real Estate Co. currently trades 148 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Real Estate Co. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (19.74 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (19.74 SAR to 61.75 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi Real Estate Co. grew −6.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.1 %, EBIT margin −12.8 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saudi Real Estate Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 5.7B SAR (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 1.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Real Estate Co. are 1.70 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The net margin of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
The operating margin of Saudi Real Estate Co. is −11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Revenue at Saudi Real Estate Co. is growing −48.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Real Estate Co. are growing +252% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Real Estate Co. (4020) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Real Estate Co. is 1.3B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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