Bindawood Holding Co (4161) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bindawood Holding Co SAR 4.01, price SAR 4.66, upside -14.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.10 SAR – 9.47 SAR · fair‑value band 3.01 SAR – 5.02 SAR · the 4.66 SAR price screens above the 4.01 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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BinDawood Holding Company operates hypermarkets and supermarkets in Qatar, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company provides loyalty management; information technology and communication; delivery, storage and transportation services; warehouse storage management and rental; and market influencing and digital marketing services.
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BinDawood Holding Company operates hypermarkets and supermarkets in Qatar, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company provides loyalty management; information technology and communication; delivery, storage and transportation services; warehouse storage management and rental; and market influencing and digital marketing services. It engages in the wholesale, retail, and distribution of luggage bags, food, toys, foodstuff, and household items; online sale of groceries; operation of pharmacies; wholesale and retail trade in pharmaceutical products and cosmetics; scientific office activities; packaging of pharmaceutical products; operation of bakeries and restaurants; and acquiring and managing of investments. The company recently expanded its operations to Qatar under the BinDawood brand name. BinDawood Holding Company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Bindawood Holding Co (4161) currently trades at 4.66 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.01 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 16.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6.10 SAR per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the 4.66 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.9000 SAR, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 3.01 SAR (bear) to 5.02 SAR (bull), the price of 4.66 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bindawood Holding Co reported revenue of 6.3B SAR in FY2025 versus 4.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was 270M SAR in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.2B SAR (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) 0.2400 SAR · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −14%, 4161 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3.01 SARFair Value 4.01 SARBull 5.02 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0881 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs −6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.3% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bindawood Holding Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4161
Frequently asked questions
Is Bindawood Holding Co (4161) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.01 SAR versus a price of 4.66 SAR, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4161?
Our model-based fair value for Bindawood Holding Co is 4.01 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.66 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4161?
Bindawood Holding Co has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.01 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.01 SAR, optimistic scenario 5.02 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bindawood Holding Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.01 SAR, about −14% upside versus a price of 4.66 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.01 SAR, optimistic scenario 5.02 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Bindawood Holding Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Bindawood Holding Co pay a dividend?
Bindawood Holding Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bindawood Holding Co would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4161 use?
Our models discount Bindawood Holding Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bindawood Holding Co that is -1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bindawood Holding Co (4161) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bindawood Holding Co grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bindawood Holding Co (4161) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bindawood Holding Co (-1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.82 %: that much free cash flow Bindawood Holding Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bindawood Holding Co it is 4.01 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4.66 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bindawood Holding Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4161 trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.66 SAR, fair value 4.01 SAR, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4161?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.66 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.01 SAR). For Bindawood Holding Co the two are 0.6500 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bindawood Holding Co worth?
The market values Bindawood Holding Co at about 5.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4.66 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 4.01 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4161?
Our models span a range for Bindawood Holding Co: cautious scenario 3.01 SAR, base 4.01 SAR, optimistic 5.02 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4.66 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4161?
Bindawood Holding Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.01 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bindawood Holding Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4161 from its 52-week high?
Bindawood Holding Co trades at 4.66 SAR, about 20% below its 52-week high of 5.83 SAR and 13% above the low of 4.13 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.01 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bindawood Holding Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bindawood Holding Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4.66 SAR, calculated fair value 4.01 SAR (−14%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4161 calculated?
We run Bindawood Holding Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.01 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bindawood Holding Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 4.66 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 4.01 SAR, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bindawood Holding Co right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Bindawood Holding Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The market capitalisation of Bindawood Holding Co is 5.2B SAR (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bindawood Holding Co is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Earnings per share at Bindawood Holding Co are 0.2400 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The dividend yield of Bindawood Holding Co is 2.6% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The net margin of Bindawood Holding Co is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bindawood Holding Co is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bindawood Holding Co is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
The operating margin of Bindawood Holding Co is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Revenue at Bindawood Holding Co is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bindawood Holding Co (4161)?
Earnings per share at Bindawood Holding Co are growing +2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bindawood Holding Co (4161) carry?
The net debt of Bindawood Holding Co is 2.5B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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