Jarir Marketing Co (4190) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 6, 2026: fair value of Jarir Marketing Co SAR 17.84, price SAR 16.37, upside +9.0%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.19 SAR – 17.89 SAR · fair‑value band 12.49 SAR – 23.20 SAR · the 16.37 SAR price screens below the 17.84 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Jarir Marketing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale trading of office and school supplies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Gulf countries. It operates through in three segments: Retail Outlets, Wholesale, and E-commerce.
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Jarir Marketing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale trading of office and school supplies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Gulf countries. It operates through in three segments: Retail Outlets, Wholesale, and E-commerce. The company is involved in the sale of office supplies, school supplies, books, computers and peripherals, computer supplies, smartphones and accessories, electronics, art and craft supplies, video games, smart TV's, and kids' development products, as well as provision of after-sale services Jarir bookstore brand. It also purchases residential and commercial buildings; and acquires land and constructs buildings for sale or lease purposes. The company also sell its products online through website. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Jarir Marketing Co (4190) currently trades at 16.37 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.84 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 16.51 SAR per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the 16.37 SAR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 5.80 SAR, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 12.49 SAR (bear) to 23.20 SAR (bull), the price of 16.37 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Jarir Marketing Co reported revenue of 11.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 9.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B SAR in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.6B SAR (≈ $5.2B) · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) 0.9300 SAR · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 67.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 9%, 4190 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.49 SARFair Value 17.84 SARBull 23.20 SAR
Price 16.37 SAR · Upside +9.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2992 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.1% vs 3.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.7% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 207 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)67.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jarir Marketing Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4190
Frequently asked questions
Is Jarir Marketing Co (4190) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.84 SAR versus a price of 16.37 SAR, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4190?
Our model-based fair value for Jarir Marketing Co is 17.84 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.37 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4190?
Jarir Marketing Co has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.84 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.49 SAR, optimistic scenario 23.20 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jarir Marketing Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.84 SAR, about +9% upside versus a price of 16.37 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 12.49 SAR, optimistic scenario 23.20 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Jarir Marketing Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Jarir Marketing Co pay a dividend?
Jarir Marketing Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jarir Marketing Co would have to grow free cash flow by +1.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4190 use?
Our models discount Jarir Marketing Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jarir Marketing Co that is +1.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jarir Marketing Co (4190) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jarir Marketing Co grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +1.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jarir Marketing Co (4190) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jarir Marketing Co (+1.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.99 %: that much free cash flow Jarir Marketing Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jarir Marketing Co it is 17.84 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 16.37 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jarir Marketing Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 4190 trades below its calculated fair value: price 16.37 SAR, fair value 17.84 SAR, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4190?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16.37 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.84 SAR). For Jarir Marketing Co the two are 1.47 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jarir Marketing Co worth?
The market values Jarir Marketing Co at about 19.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 16.37 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 17.84 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4190?
Our models span a range for Jarir Marketing Co: cautious scenario 12.49 SAR, base 17.84 SAR, optimistic 23.20 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 16.37 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4190?
Jarir Marketing Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.84 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 11.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jarir Marketing Co (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 67.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4190 from its 52-week high?
Jarir Marketing Co trades at 16.37 SAR, about 9% below its 52-week high of 17.89 SAR and 40% above the low of 11.70 SAR (as of Oct 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.84 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jarir Marketing Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jarir Marketing Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 16.37 SAR, calculated fair value 17.84 SAR (+9%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4190 calculated?
We run Jarir Marketing Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.84 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Jarir Marketing Co currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The closing price on Oct 6, 2026 was 16.37 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 17.84 SAR, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jarir Marketing Co right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (12.49 SAR to 23.20 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jarir Marketing Co (4190) come from?
Earnings per share at Jarir Marketing Co grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jarir Marketing Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The market capitalisation of Jarir Marketing Co is 19.6B SAR (≈ $5.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jarir Marketing Co is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Earnings per share at Jarir Marketing Co are 0.9300 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The dividend yield of Jarir Marketing Co is 3.3% (payout 58.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The net margin of Jarir Marketing Co is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jarir Marketing Co is 67.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jarir Marketing Co is 24.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
The operating margin of Jarir Marketing Co is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Revenue at Jarir Marketing Co is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Earnings per share at Jarir Marketing Co are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jarir Marketing Co (4190) carry?
The net debt of Jarir Marketing Co is 473M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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