Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 43.38 SAR – 150.61 SAR · fair‑value band 91.64 SAR – 223.24 SAR · the 119.30 SAR price screens below the 130.91 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company engages in the wholesale and retail of fuel, gasoline, and oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Petroleum Services and Transport Services segments.
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Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company engages in the wholesale and retail of fuel, gasoline, and oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Petroleum Services and Transport Services segments. The company offers various services related to additives, car wash, tire servicing, alignment, accessories, food, mosque, ATMs, car rental, etc.; and operates fuel stations. It also provides transportation and logistics services for liquid and dry materials through trucks and trailers. In addition, the company is involved in wholesale and retail trade of cooked and uncooked catering services. The company was formerly known as Mohammed Saad Aldrees And Sons Company Ltd. and changed its name to Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company in December 2004. Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) currently trades at 119.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 130.91 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 194.20 SAR per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the 119.30 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 24.15 SAR, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 91.64 SAR (bear) to 223.24 SAR (bull), the price of 119.30 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs reported revenue of 25.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 9.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was 422M SAR in FY2025, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.9B SAR (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 26.1 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) 4.57 SAR · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 28.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 10%, 4200 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 91.64 SARFair Value 130.91 SARBull 223.24 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.81 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−41% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4200
Frequently asked questions
Is Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 130.91 SAR versus a price of 119.30 SAR, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4200?
Our model-based fair value for Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 130.91 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 119.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4200?
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 130.91 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 91.64 SAR, optimistic scenario 223.24 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 130.91 SAR, about +10% upside versus a price of 119.30 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 91.64 SAR, optimistic scenario 223.24 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 27.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs pay a dividend?
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs would have to grow free cash flow by +3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4200 use?
Our models discount Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs that is +3.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs grew +39.0 % a year. The price currently implies +3.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (+3.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs it is 130.91 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 119.30 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4200 trades below its calculated fair value: price 119.30 SAR, fair value 130.91 SAR, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4200?
No. The price is what the market pays today (119.30 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (130.91 SAR). For Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs the two are 11.61 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs worth?
The market values Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs at about 11.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 119.30 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 130.91 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4200?
Our models span a range for Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs: cautious scenario 91.64 SAR, base 130.91 SAR, optimistic 223.24 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 119.30 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4200?
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.1 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 130.91 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 28.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4200 from its 52-week high?
Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs trades at 119.30 SAR, about 21% below its 52-week high of 151.40 SAR and 13% above the low of 105.30 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 130.91 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 119.30 SAR, calculated fair value 130.91 SAR (+10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4200 calculated?
We run Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 130.91 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (91.64 SAR to 223.24 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) come from?
Earnings per share at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.3 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs
How large is the market capitalisation of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The market capitalisation of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 11.9B SAR (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 0.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Earnings per share at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs are 4.57 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The dividend yield of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 1.7% (payout 43.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The net margin of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 28.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
The operating margin of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Revenue at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is growing +18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200)?
Earnings per share at Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs are growing +24.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs (4200) carry?
The net debt of Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs is 4.1B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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