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Emaar The Economic City (4220) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Emaar The Economic City is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate · SA · ISIN SA000A0KDVM8

ET Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Emaar The Economic City

4220 · SR

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value 7.09 SAR · Overvalued (−26%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/12)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

29.59 SAR 8.35 SAR Fair Value 7.09 SAR May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.35 SAR – 29.59 SAR · fair‑value band 5.29 SAR – 10.58 SAR · the 9.61 SAR price screens above the 7.09 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Emaar The Economic City engages in the development of real estate properties in the economic or other zones in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates in five segments: Residential Business, Industrial Development, Hospitality and Leisure, Education Services, and City Operations. The company primarily develops the King Abdullah Economic City.

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Emaar The Economic City engages in the development of real estate properties in the economic or other zones in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates in five segments: Residential Business, Industrial Development, Hospitality and Leisure, Education Services, and City Operations. The company primarily develops the King Abdullah Economic City. It also develops infrastructure; promotes, markets, and sells land within development areas; transfers/leases land; develops buildings/housing units; and constructs properties on behalf of other parties. In addition, the company sells/leases land, and units for residential and commercial purpose; and operates schools and colleges, hotels, resorts, other leisure clubs, and technical institutions, as well as utilities and other city management services. Further, it owns, purchase, sale, investment, development, and markets real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in King Abdullah Economic City, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Emaar The Economic City (4220) currently trades at 9.61 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.09 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 35.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 5.29 SAR (bear) to 10.58 SAR (bull), the price of 9.61 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Emaar The Economic City reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 372M SAR in FY2021, a compound +32.2%/yr. Reported net income was −9.0M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 8.3B SAR (≈ $2.2B) · P/E ratio 480.5 · P/S ratio 7.59 · EPS (TTM) 0.0200 SAR · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.5% · Operating margin −56.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −26%, 4220 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.29 SAR Fair Value 7.09 SAR Bull 10.58 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0141 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings n/a 7.09 SAR 78.95 SAR 73
NCAV (Graham) 101.37 SAR 135.86 SAR 202.93 SAR 54
All 2 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings n/a 7.09 SAR 78.95 SAR 73
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 101.37 SAR 135.86 SAR 202.93 SAR 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+167.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−190.7% (2020) → −32.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

4220 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −56% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −23% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.43× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 480.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.24× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.02× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 34.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 HK$92.75 HK$98.84 +7%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.16 HK$72.90 +150%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 72,000 VND 109,431 VND +52%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$47.88 HK$68.85 +44%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.48 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹643.60 ₹170.24 −74%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.48 HK$22.14 +77%
Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,113 ₹277.21 −75%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.14 HK$8.51 −16%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 5,625 IDR 1,325 IDR −76%

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Emaar The Economic City · Fair Value
7.09 SAR −36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Emaar The Economic City Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4220

Frequently asked questions

Is Emaar The Economic City (4220) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.09 SAR versus a price of 9.61 SAR, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4220?
Our model-based fair value for Emaar The Economic City is 7.09 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.61 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4220?
Emaar The Economic City has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.09 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.29 SAR, optimistic scenario 10.58 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Emaar The Economic City stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.09 SAR, about −26% upside versus a price of 9.61 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.29 SAR, optimistic scenario 10.58 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Emaar The Economic City reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Emaar The Economic City it is 7.09 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 9.61 SAR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Emaar The Economic City stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4220 trades above its calculated fair value: price 9.61 SAR, fair value 7.09 SAR, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4220?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.61 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.09 SAR). For Emaar The Economic City the two are 2.52 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Emaar The Economic City worth?
The market values Emaar The Economic City at about 8.3B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 9.61 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.09 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4220?
Our models span a range for Emaar The Economic City: cautious scenario 5.29 SAR, base 7.09 SAR, optimistic 10.58 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 9.61 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4220?
Emaar The Economic City trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 480.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.09 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 34.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Balance-sheet figures for Emaar The Economic City (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −0.9%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4220 from its 52-week high?
Emaar The Economic City trades at 9.61 SAR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 14.10 SAR and 21% above the low of 7.96 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.09 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Emaar The Economic City?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Emaar The Economic City stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 9.61 SAR, calculated fair value 7.09 SAR (−26%), Quality Score 46/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4220 calculated?
We run Emaar The Economic City through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.09 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Emaar The Economic City itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Emaar The Economic City right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (5.29 SAR to 10.58 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Emaar The Economic City

How large is the market capitalisation of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
The market capitalisation of Emaar The Economic City is 8.3B SAR (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Emaar The Economic City is 7.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Earnings per share at Emaar The Economic City are 0.0200 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 480.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
The net margin of Emaar The Economic City is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Emaar The Economic City is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Emaar The Economic City is −0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
The operating margin of Emaar The Economic City is −56.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Revenue at Emaar The Economic City is growing −22.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Emaar The Economic City (4220)?
Earnings per share at Emaar The Economic City are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Emaar The Economic City (4220) generate?
The free cash flow of Emaar The Economic City is −188M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Emaar The Economic City (4220) carry?
The net debt of Emaar The Economic City is 4.1B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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