Falcon Machine Tools Co (4513) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TW · Market cap 2.4B TWD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price −17.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.21 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (1.17 TWD to 2.21 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.79 TWD – 85.90 TWD · fair‑value band 1.17 TWD – 2.21 TWD · the 16.80 TWD price screens above the 1.77 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Falcon Machine Tools Co (4513) currently trades at 16.80 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.77 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 89.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Falcon Machine Tools Co generated revenue of 1.2B TWD at a net margin of -11.9%. Revenue grew 75.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.4%. Net debt stands at 1.8B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.17 TWD (bear case) to 2.21 TWD (bull case); at 16.80 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -89%, 4513 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (6.74 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (0.8900 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Falcon Machine Tools Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, processing, and sale of grindering, lathes, milling, planing, drilling, sawing machines, and other machinery products in Taiwan, the United States, Mainland China, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Falcon Machine Tools Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, processing, and sale of grindering, lathes, milling, planing, drilling, sawing machines, and other machinery products in Taiwan, the United States, Mainland China, Europe, and internationally. The company offers precision surface grinders, computer numerical control (CNC) surface grinders, vertical grinding centers, profiles grinder, CNC rotary surface grinder, double-sided fine grinder, double column grinding machines, surface and form grinders, vertical machining center, turret milling machine, vertical turning lathe, multi-function flat lathe, vertical lathe for non-circular piston contouring, and aluminium wheel production equipment. It also manufactures and sells computer peripherals, computer components, and electronic components. In addition, the company operates through real estate agency brokerage; manufactures, processes, and sells mechanical sheet metal and parts; rents and sells residential and building development; and investment industry business. It serves aerospace, semiconductor, automotive, mold manufacturing, automation, and other industries. Falcon Machine Tools Co., Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Changhua, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Falcon Machine Tools Co reported revenue of 1.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −204M TWD in FY2025.
4513 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €899.80 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €281.75 | €91.93 | -67% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.75 | -28% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 210.00 | kr 112.59 | -46% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 358.60 | kr 193.01 | -46% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥39.17 | ¥22.68 | -42% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥24.06 | ¥18.71 | -22% |
| ABB India Limited ABB | ₹7,700 | ₹1,322 | -83% |
| Cummins India Limited CUMMINSIND | ₹5,315 | ₹1,355 | -75% |
| Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited BHEL | ₹420.00 | ₹96.51 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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