APAC Opto Electronics (4908) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of APAC Opto Electronics TWD 28.85, price TWD 210, upside -86.3%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 28.85 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
✓Quality 72/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +1.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
·0.48% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(7/13)
✓Wide moat66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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APAC Opto Electronics Inc. manufactures and sells fiber optical transmission components for local area networks, wide area networks, storage networks, metropolitan area networks, and access networks in Taiwan and internationally.
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APAC Opto Electronics Inc. manufactures and sells fiber optical transmission components for local area networks, wide area networks, storage networks, metropolitan area networks, and access networks in Taiwan and internationally. It also offers optical transceivers; copper transceivers; digital video transceivers; external laser source for optical engine; direct attach cables; optical extenders, such as display port, DVI, and USB extenders; and active optical cables. The company also provides OSA/FTTX and OSA/TOSA/FP LD cables; and TO-CAN OEM, an assembly and testing service for TO-CAN type packages that include die bond, wire bond, and cap sealing process. In addition, it supplies a range of optical communication components, including O/E transceivers, sub modules, and ethernet products. The company serves manufacturers of communications for Internet service providers and telecommunications operating companies. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
APAC Opto Electronics (4908) currently trades at 210.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 28.85 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 627.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 41.46 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 210.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 14.66 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 21.62 TWD (bear) to 38.08 TWD (bull), the price of 210.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
APAC Opto Electronics reported revenue of 815M TWD in FY2025 versus 779M TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 155M TWD in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.4B TWD (≈ $516M) · P/E ratio 84.0 · P/S ratio 15.9 · EPS (TTM) 2.50 TWD · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 19.0% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 203% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −86%, 4908 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 21.62 TWDFair Value 28.85 TWDBull 38.08 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.10 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 311 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)84.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)17.91× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA73.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is APAC Opto Electronics (4908) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 28.85 TWD versus a price of 210.00 TWD, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4908?
Our model-based fair value for APAC Opto Electronics is 28.85 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 210.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4908?
APAC Opto Electronics has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 28.85 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 21.62 TWD, optimistic scenario 38.08 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the APAC Opto Electronics stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 28.85 TWD, about −86% upside versus a price of 210.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 21.62 TWD, optimistic scenario 38.08 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
APAC Opto Electronics reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 917M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does APAC Opto Electronics pay a dividend?
APAC Opto Electronics currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, APAC Opto Electronics would have to grow free cash flow by +44.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4908 use?
Our models discount APAC Opto Electronics at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For APAC Opto Electronics that is +44.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has APAC Opto Electronics (4908) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at APAC Opto Electronics grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +44.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of APAC Opto Electronics (4908) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into APAC Opto Electronics (+44.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.11 %: that much free cash flow APAC Opto Electronics produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For APAC Opto Electronics it is 28.85 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 210.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is APAC Opto Electronics stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4908 trades above its calculated fair value: price 210.00 TWD, fair value 28.85 TWD, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4908?
No. The price is what the market pays today (210.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (28.85 TWD). For APAC Opto Electronics the two are 181.15 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is APAC Opto Electronics worth?
The market values APAC Opto Electronics at about 16.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 210.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 28.85 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4908?
Our models span a range for APAC Opto Electronics: cautious scenario 21.62 TWD, base 28.85 TWD, optimistic 38.08 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 210.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4908?
APAC Opto Electronics trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 84.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 28.85 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.5, P/S 17.9, EV/EBITDA 73.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Balance-sheet figures for APAC Opto Electronics (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4908 from its 52-week high?
APAC Opto Electronics trades at 210.00 TWD, about 28% below its 52-week high of 293.50 TWD and 203% above the low of 69.20 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 28.85 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to APAC Opto Electronics?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is APAC Opto Electronics stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 210.00 TWD, calculated fair value 28.85 TWD (−86%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4908 calculated?
We run APAC Opto Electronics through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 28.85 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. APAC Opto Electronics itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 210.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 28.85 TWD, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with APAC Opto Electronics right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (38.08 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of APAC Opto Electronics
How large is the market capitalisation of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The market capitalisation of APAC Opto Electronics is 16.4B TWD (≈ $516M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The price-to-sales ratio of APAC Opto Electronics is 15.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Earnings per share at APAC Opto Electronics are 2.50 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 84.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The dividend yield of APAC Opto Electronics is 0.5% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The net margin of APAC Opto Electronics is 19.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The return on equity (ROE) of APAC Opto Electronics is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of APAC Opto Electronics is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
The operating margin of APAC Opto Electronics is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Revenue at APAC Opto Electronics is growing +24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at APAC Opto Electronics (4908)?
Earnings per share at APAC Opto Electronics are growing +387% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does APAC Opto Electronics (4908) hold?
APAC Opto Electronics holds more cash than debt, 113M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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