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Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Supreme Petrochem Limited ₹1,382, price ₹783, upside +76.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Supreme Petrochem Limited
500405 · BSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value ₹1,382 · Strongly undervalued (+76.6%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.1% net margin (FY2025)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹182.73 – ₹888.34 · fair‑value band ₹909.00 – ₹2,267 · the ₹782.65 price screens below the ₹1,382 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Supreme Petrochem Limited manufactures and sells polystyrene, expandable polystyrene, specialty polymers and compounds, and extruded polystyrene foam boards (XPS) in India and internationally.
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Supreme Petrochem Limited manufactures and sells polystyrene, expandable polystyrene, specialty polymers and compounds, and extruded polystyrene foam boards (XPS) in India and internationally. It provides general purpose, high impact, and specialty polystyrene products; FR high impact and toughened polystyrene; PE and polystyrene based white and additive masterbatches, and UV and nucleating masterbatches; and XPS foam boards for insulation under the brand name of INSUBOARD. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405) currently trades at ₹782.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,382, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹2,592 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the ₹782.65 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹381.14, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹909.00 (bear) to ₹2,267 (bull), the price of ₹782.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Supreme Petrochem Limited reported revenue of ₹53.9B in FY2025 versus ₹50.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.3B in FY2025, compounding −16.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹16.9B (≈ $175M) · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) ₹5.13 · Net margin 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.3% · Free cash flow ₹357M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 77%, 500405 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹909.00
Fair Value ₹1,382
Bull ₹2,267
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.88 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
₹318.69
₹391.27
₹482.46
82
Growth DCF
₹318.79
₹381.14
₹454.57
80
Owner Earnings
₹1,002
₹1,346
₹1,779
78
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹318.69
₹391.27
₹482.46
82
Owner Earnings
₹1,002
₹1,346
₹1,779
78
5Y Revenue Exit
₹1,237
₹2,140
₹3,320
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
₹1,164
₹2,003
₹2,997
74
5Y P/E Exit
₹1,184
₹2,040
₹2,951
70
10Y Revenue Exit
₹775.01
₹1,417
₹2,316
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
₹778.05
₹1,336
₹2,105
67
10Y P/E Exit
₹789.00
₹1,358
₹2,075
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹1,037
₹3,298
₹4,395
64
Lynch FV
₹726.83
₹1,038
₹1,350
61
PEG = 1.0
₹726.83
₹1,038
₹1,350
57
EPV
₹1,323
₹1,465
₹1,581
71
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹1,944
₹2,592
₹3,240
63
P/S Multiple
₹1,944
₹2,592
₹3,240
58
P/B Multiple
₹1,944
₹2,592
₹3,240
55
EV/EBIT
₹2,344
₹3,080
₹3,816
66
EV/EBITDA
₹2,040
₹2,675
₹3,309
67
EV/Revenue
₹2,050
₹2,870
₹3,690
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹550.29
₹737.39
₹1,101
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹318.79
₹381.14
₹454.57
80
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹969.42
₹1,094
₹1,393
76
ROIC Compounder
₹1,360
₹1,582
₹1,823
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹1,661
₹2,373
₹3,085
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
58
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.2% vs −0.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $104.67 | $76.98 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,382 versus a price of ₹782.65, about +77% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 500405?
Our model-based fair value for Supreme Petrochem Limited is ₹1,382 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹782.65.
What is the quality score of 500405?
Supreme Petrochem Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,382 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹909.00, optimistic scenario ₹2,267. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Supreme Petrochem Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,382, about +77% upside versus a price of ₹782.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹909.00, optimistic scenario ₹2,267. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Supreme Petrochem Limited would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 500405 use?
Our models discount Supreme Petrochem Limited at 15.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Supreme Petrochem Limited that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Supreme Petrochem Limited grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Supreme Petrochem Limited (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.24 %: that much free cash flow Supreme Petrochem Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Supreme Petrochem Limited it is ₹1,382 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹782.65. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Supreme Petrochem Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 500405 trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹782.65, fair value ₹1,382, a gap of about +77% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 500405?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹782.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,382). For Supreme Petrochem Limited the two are ₹599.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Supreme Petrochem Limited worth?
The market values Supreme Petrochem Limited at about ₹16.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹782.65; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,382 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 500405?
Our models span a range for Supreme Petrochem Limited: cautious scenario ₹909.00, base ₹1,382, optimistic ₹2,267 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹782.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 500405 from its 52-week high?
Supreme Petrochem Limited trades at ₹782.65, about 11% below its 52-week high of ₹882.60 and 56% above the low of ₹501.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,382 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Supreme Petrochem Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Supreme Petrochem Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹782.65, calculated fair value ₹1,382 (+77%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 500405 calculated?
We run Supreme Petrochem Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,382, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Supreme Petrochem Limited currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹782.65. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,382, about +77% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Supreme Petrochem Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹909.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹909.00 to ₹2,267) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Supreme Petrochem Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The market capitalisation of Supreme Petrochem Limited is ₹16.9B (≈ $175M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Supreme Petrochem Limited is 35.0 (as of Jul 4, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Supreme Petrochem Limited is 2.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
Earnings per share at Supreme Petrochem Limited are ₹5.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
The net margin of Supreme Petrochem Limited is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Supreme Petrochem Limited (500405)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Supreme Petrochem Limited is 20.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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