Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust MYR 1.48, price MYR 1.55, upside -4.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust with the largest exposure to the retail sector by any listed Malaysian REIT, Pavilion REIT owns a RM9.1 billion portfolio based on appraised value, to which its most prominent assets are its retail malls, Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall and Pavilion Bukit Jalil.
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Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust with the largest exposure to the retail sector by any listed Malaysian REIT, Pavilion REIT owns a RM9.1 billion portfolio based on appraised value, to which its most prominent assets are its retail malls, Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall and Pavilion Bukit Jalil. Pavilion REIT is established with the principal investment policy of investing, directly and indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income producing real estate used solely or predominantly for retail purposes (including mixed use developments with a retail component) in Malaysia and other countries within the Asia-Pacific region. Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust was incorporated in 2011 in Malaysia.
Stock analysis
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) currently trades at 1.55 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.48 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.10 MYR per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the 1.55 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.9400 MYR, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.01 MYR (bear) to 2.05 MYR (bull), the price of 1.55 MYR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust reported revenue of 866M MYR in FY2025 versus 479M MYR in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was 467M MYR in FY2025, compounding +86.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 6.1B MYR (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 3.2 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) 0.4800 MYR · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 53.9% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −5%, 5212 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.01 MYRFair Value 1.48 MYRBull 2.05 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2775 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+37.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31% vs 2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 62%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)53% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)58% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5212
Frequently asked questions
Is Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.48 MYR versus a price of 1.55 MYR, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 5212?
Our model-based fair value for Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 1.48 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.55 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5212?
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.48 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.01 MYR, optimistic scenario 2.05 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.48 MYR, about −5% upside versus a price of 1.55 MYR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 1.01 MYR, optimistic scenario 2.05 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 927M MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust pay a dividend?
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5212 use?
Our models discount Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust that is +15.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +15.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (+15.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.85 %: that much free cash flow Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust it is 1.48 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1.55 MYR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 5212 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.55 MYR, fair value 1.48 MYR, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5212?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.55 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.48 MYR). For Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust the two are 0.0700 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust worth?
The market values Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust at about 6.1B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1.55 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 1.48 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5212?
Our models span a range for Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust: cautious scenario 1.01 MYR, base 1.48 MYR, optimistic 2.05 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1.55 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5212?
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.48 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 0.3, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 5212?
The PEG ratio of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5212 from its 52-week high?
Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust trades at 1.55 MYR, about 20% below its 52-week high of 1.94 MYR and 1% above the low of 1.53 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.48 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1.55 MYR, calculated fair value 1.48 MYR (−5%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5212 calculated?
We run Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.48 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1.55 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 1.48 MYR, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (1.01 MYR to 2.05 MYR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) come from?
Earnings per share at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust grew −7.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The market capitalisation of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 6.1B MYR (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 1.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Earnings per share at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust are 0.4800 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The dividend yield of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 6.6% (payout 21.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The net margin of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 53.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
The operating margin of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 58.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Revenue at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212)?
Earnings per share at Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust are growing +6.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust (5212) carry?
The net debt of Pavilion Real Estate Inv Trust is 3.3B MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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