Scentre Group (SCG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$20.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$2.51 to A$4.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.91 – A$4.13 · fair‑value band A$2.51 – A$4.64 · the A$3.93 price screens above the A$3.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Scentre Group (SCG) currently trades at A$3.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.34, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Scentre Group generated revenue of A$2.7B at a net margin of 66.2%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at A$14.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.51 (bear case) to A$4.64 (bull case); at A$3.93, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -15%, SCG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$6.00) versus Growth DCF (A$1.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Scentre Group owns 42 Westfield destinations across Australia and New Zealand encompassing approximately 12,000 outlets. Our Purpose is creating extraordinary places and experiences that connect, enrich and are essential to our communities. Our Ambition is to create the places more people choose to come, more often and for longer.
Full company description
Scentre Group owns 42 Westfield destinations across Australia and New Zealand encompassing approximately 12,000 outlets. Our Purpose is creating extraordinary places and experiences that connect, enrich and are essential to our communities. Our Ambition is to create the places more people choose to come, more often and for longer. Scentre Group was incorporated in June 30th, 2014 in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Scentre Group reported revenue of A$2.7B in FY2025 versus A$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.8B in FY2025, compounding +19.0%/yr from FY2021.
SCG screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
| Agree Realty Corporation ADC | $79.81 | $39.16 | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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