CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of CapitaLand Mall Trust S$1.38, price S$2.24, upside -38.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.41 SGD – 2.49 SGD · fair‑value band 0.9700 SGD – 1.98 SGD · the 2.24 SGD price screens above the 1.38 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) is the first and largest real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a market capitalization of US14.2 billion dollars or S18.2 billion dollars as at 31 December 2025.
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CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) is the first and largest real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a market capitalization of US14.2 billion dollars or S18.2 billion dollars as at 31 December 2025. It debuted on SGX-ST as CapitaLand Mall Trust in July 2002 and was renamed CICT in November 2020 following the merger with CapitaLand Commercial Trust. As the largest proxy for Singapore commercial real estate, CICT owns and invests in quality income-producing assets primarily used for commercial (including retail and/or office) purposes, located predominantly in Singapore. CICT's portfolio comprises 20 properties in Singapore, two properties in Frankfurt, Germany, and three properties in Sydney, Australia with a total property value of S27.0 billion dollars or US21.0 billion dollar based on valuations of its proportionate interests in the portfolio as at 31 December 2025. CICT is managed by CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust Management Limited (CICTML or the Manager), a wholly owned subsidiary of CapitaLand Investment Limited, a leading global real asset manager with a strong Asia foothold. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust was established in October 29, 2001 and incorporated in Singapore.
Stock analysis
CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) currently trades at 2.24 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.38 SGD, 38.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 1.70 SGD per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 2.24 SGD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.5100 SGD, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 0.9700 SGD (bear) to 1.98 SGD (bull), the price of 2.24 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CapitaLand Mall Trust reported revenue of 1.6B SGD in FY2025 versus 1.3B SGD in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 937M SGD in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.9B SGD (≈ $13.2B) · P/E ratio 18.0 · P/S ratio 10.4 · EPS (TTM) 0.1244 SGD · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 57.9% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −38%, C38U screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.9700 SGDFair Value 1.38 SGDBull 1.98 SGD
Price 2.24 SGD · Upside -38.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0413 SGD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.1% vs 16.7%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 48%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 93 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−38.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)73.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)67.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.04× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)10.06× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF20.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA23.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG6.78× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)38· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)95· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.38 SGD versus a price of 2.24 SGD, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of C38U?
Our model-based fair value for CapitaLand Mall Trust is 1.38 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.24 SGD.
What is the quality score of C38U?
CapitaLand Mall Trust has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.38 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.9700 SGD, optimistic scenario 1.98 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CapitaLand Mall Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.38 SGD, about −38% upside versus a price of 2.24 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.9700 SGD, optimistic scenario 1.98 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
CapitaLand Mall Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does CapitaLand Mall Trust pay a dividend?
CapitaLand Mall Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CapitaLand Mall Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of C38U use?
Our models discount CapitaLand Mall Trust at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CapitaLand Mall Trust that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CapitaLand Mall Trust grew +16.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CapitaLand Mall Trust (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.81 %: that much free cash flow CapitaLand Mall Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CapitaLand Mall Trust it is 1.38 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 2.24 SGD. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CapitaLand Mall Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, C38U trades above its calculated fair value: price 2.24 SGD, fair value 1.38 SGD, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of C38U?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.24 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.38 SGD). For CapitaLand Mall Trust the two are 0.8600 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CapitaLand Mall Trust worth?
The market values CapitaLand Mall Trust at about 16.9B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 2.24 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 1.38 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about C38U?
Our models span a range for CapitaLand Mall Trust: cautious scenario 0.9700 SGD, base 1.38 SGD, optimistic 1.98 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 2.24 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of C38U?
CapitaLand Mall Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.38 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.8, P/B 1.0, P/S 10.1, EV/EBITDA 23.2.
What is the PEG ratio of C38U?
The PEG ratio of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 6.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Balance-sheet figures for CapitaLand Mall Trust (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is C38U from its 52-week high?
CapitaLand Mall Trust trades at 2.24 SGD, about 10% below its 52-week high of 2.49 SGD and 2% above the low of 2.19 SGD (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.38 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CapitaLand Mall Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CapitaLand Mall Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 2.24 SGD, calculated fair value 1.38 SGD (−38%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of C38U calculated?
We run CapitaLand Mall Trust through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.38 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. CapitaLand Mall Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 2.24 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 1.38 SGD, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CapitaLand Mall Trust right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.98 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (0.9700 SGD to 1.98 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of CapitaLand Mall Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The market capitalisation of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 16.9B SGD (≈ $13.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 10.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Earnings per share at CapitaLand Mall Trust are 0.1244 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The dividend yield of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 4.7% (payout 85.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The net margin of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 57.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
The operating margin of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 67.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Revenue at CapitaLand Mall Trust is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
Earnings per share at CapitaLand Mall Trust are growing +65.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) carry?
The net debt of CapitaLand Mall Trust is 9.8B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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