AirAsia X Bhd (5238) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AirAsia X Bhd MYR 0.59, price MYR 0.51, upside +17.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch AirAsia X Bhd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.3750 MYR – 2.57 MYR · fair‑value band 0.3805 MYR – 0.7736 MYR · the 0.5050 MYR price screens below the 0.5938 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow AirAsia X Bhd in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether AirAsia X Bhd is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
AirAsia X Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, provides long haul air transportation services under the AirAsia brand in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. It offers logistical management and marketing services; and leases aircraft facilities, as well as commercial air transport services.
Show more
AirAsia X Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, provides long haul air transportation services under the AirAsia brand in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. It offers logistical management and marketing services; and leases aircraft facilities, as well as commercial air transport services. The company was formerly known as Fly Asian Xpress Sdn Bhd and changed its name to AirAsia X Berhad in September 2007. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Stock analysis
AirAsia X Bhd (5238) currently trades at 0.5050 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5938 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.82 MYR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 0.5050 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.1000 MYR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.3805 MYR (bear) to 0.7736 MYR (bull), the price of 0.5050 MYR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AirAsia X Bhd reported revenue of 3.3B MYR in FY2025 versus 755M MYR in FY2020, a compound +34.5%/yr. Reported net income was 192M MYR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8B MYR (≈ $687M) · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) 0.2300 MYR · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.5% · Operating margin −14,208%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 18%, 5238 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.3805 MYRFair Value 0.5938 MYRBull 0.7736 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1733 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−74.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−74.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−261% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.2%/yr over ~8Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+17.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−95.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AirAsia X Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5238
Frequently asked questions
Is AirAsia X Bhd (5238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.5938 MYR versus a price of 0.5050 MYR, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5238?
Our model-based fair value for AirAsia X Bhd is 0.5938 MYR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.5050 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5238?
AirAsia X Bhd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.5938 MYR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.3805 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.7736 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AirAsia X Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.5938 MYR, about +18% upside versus a price of 0.5050 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 0.3805 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.7736 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
AirAsia X Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.4B MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AirAsia X Bhd it is 0.5938 MYR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.5050 MYR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AirAsia X Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 5238 trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.5050 MYR, fair value 0.5938 MYR, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.5050 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.5938 MYR). For AirAsia X Bhd the two are 0.0888 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AirAsia X Bhd worth?
The market values AirAsia X Bhd at about 2.8B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.5050 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.5938 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5238?
Our models span a range for AirAsia X Bhd: cautious scenario 0.3805 MYR, base 0.5938 MYR, optimistic 0.7736 MYR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 0.5050 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5238?
AirAsia X Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.5938 MYR is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 2.3 (reported for FY2025: 1.3).
How solid is the balance sheet of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Balance-sheet figures for AirAsia X Bhd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5238 from its 52-week high?
AirAsia X Bhd trades at 0.5050 MYR, about 78% below its 52-week high of 2.27 MYR and at the low of 0.5050 MYR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.5938 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AirAsia X Bhd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AirAsia X Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.5050 MYR, calculated fair value 0.5938 MYR (+18%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5238 calculated?
We run AirAsia X Bhd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.5938 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AirAsia X Bhd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 0.5050 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 0.5938 MYR, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AirAsia X Bhd right now?
A fairly wide model range (0.3805 MYR to 0.7736 MYR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of AirAsia X Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The market capitalisation of AirAsia X Bhd is 2.8B MYR (≈ $687M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AirAsia X Bhd is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Earnings per share at AirAsia X Bhd are 0.2300 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The net margin of AirAsia X Bhd is 5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AirAsia X Bhd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AirAsia X Bhd is −18.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
The operating margin of AirAsia X Bhd is −14,208% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Revenue at AirAsia X Bhd is growing −95.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +82.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AirAsia X Bhd (5238)?
Earnings per share at AirAsia X Bhd are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AirAsia X Bhd (5238) generate?
The free cash flow of AirAsia X Bhd is 232M MYR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AirAsia X Bhd (5238) carry?
The net debt of AirAsia X Bhd is 2.0B MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch AirAsia X Bhd in the live analysis
One click puts AirAsia X Bhd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
