5649 Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MY · Market cap 31.7M MYR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.1100 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.1431 MYR – 0.6500 MYR · fair‑value band 0.0700 MYR – 0.1100 MYR · the 0.2050 MYR price screens above the 0.0900 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
5649 (5649) currently trades at 0.2050 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0900 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, 5649 generated revenue of 56.9M MYR at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.0700 MYR (bear case) to 0.1100 MYR (bull case); at 0.2050 MYR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -56%, 5649 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.3600 MYR) versus Earnings-Based (0.0300 MYR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Golden Pharos Berhad, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the forest concession management, harvesting, distribution, sawmilling, and processing of wood-based products in Malaysia and internationally. It operates through Harvesting and Sawmilling; Manufacturing; and Others segments.
Full company description
Golden Pharos Berhad, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the forest concession management, harvesting, distribution, sawmilling, and processing of wood-based products in Malaysia and internationally. It operates through Harvesting and Sawmilling; Manufacturing; and Others segments. The company involved in the manufacture and trade of glasses, veneer, and woodchips; moulding and producing finger joint and furniture, and kiln drying; and harvesting and sustainable forest management businesses. It also engages in the rental of buildings, and plant and machinery; and sells logs and right to logs. Golden Pharos Berhad was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
5649 reported revenue of 56.6M MYR in FY2025 versus 56.7M MYR in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 720K MYR in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
5649 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $188.80 | $147.92 | -22% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$98.54 | C$51.55 | -48% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $76.06 | $51.92 | -32% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.17 | C$4.54 | -68% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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