Golden Pharos Bhd (5649) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Golden Pharos Bhd MYR 0.09, price MYR 0.20, upside -55.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.1431 MYR – 0.6500 MYR · fair‑value band 0.0700 MYR – 0.1100 MYR · the 0.2000 MYR price screens above the 0.0900 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Golden Pharos Berhad, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the forest concession management, harvesting, distribution, sawmilling, and processing of wood-based products in Malaysia and internationally. It operates through Harvesting and Sawmilling; Manufacturing; and Others segments.
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Golden Pharos Berhad, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the forest concession management, harvesting, distribution, sawmilling, and processing of wood-based products in Malaysia and internationally. It operates through Harvesting and Sawmilling; Manufacturing; and Others segments. The company involved in the manufacture and trade of glasses, veneer, and woodchips; moulding and producing finger joint and furniture, and kiln drying; and harvesting and sustainable forest management businesses. It also engages in the rental of buildings, and plant and machinery; and sells logs and right to logs. Golden Pharos Berhad was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.
Stock analysis
Golden Pharos Bhd (5649) currently trades at 0.2000 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0900 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 122.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.3600 MYR per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the 0.2000 MYR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.0300 MYR, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.0700 MYR (bear) to 0.1100 MYR (bull), the price of 0.2000 MYR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Golden Pharos Bhd reported revenue of 56.6M MYR in FY2025 versus 56.7M MYR in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 720K MYR in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 31.7M MYR (≈ $7.8M) · P/S ratio 0.56 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin −52.9% · Revenue (TTM) 56.9M MYR · Revenue growth (YoY) +6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −55%, 5649 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.0700 MYRFair Value 0.0900 MYRBull 0.1100 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 1%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Above median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−53% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.14× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)30· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Golden Pharos Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5649
Frequently asked questions
Is Golden Pharos Bhd (5649) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0900 MYR versus a price of 0.2000 MYR, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5649?
Our model-based fair value for Golden Pharos Bhd is 0.0900 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.2000 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5649?
Golden Pharos Bhd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0900 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.0700 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.1100 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golden Pharos Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0900 MYR, about −55% upside versus a price of 0.2000 MYR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.0700 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.1100 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Golden Pharos Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 56.9M MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golden Pharos Bhd it is 0.0900 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 0.2000 MYR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Golden Pharos Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 5649 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.2000 MYR, fair value 0.0900 MYR, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5649?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.2000 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0900 MYR). For Golden Pharos Bhd the two are 0.1100 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golden Pharos Bhd worth?
The market values Golden Pharos Bhd at about 31.7M MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 0.2000 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0900 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5649?
Our models span a range for Golden Pharos Bhd: cautious scenario 0.0700 MYR, base 0.0900 MYR, optimistic 0.1100 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 0.2000 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golden Pharos Bhd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5649 from its 52-week high?
Golden Pharos Bhd trades at 0.2000 MYR, about 41% below its 52-week high of 0.3400 MYR and 11% above the low of 0.1800 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0900 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golden Pharos Bhd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Century Plyboards (India) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golden Pharos Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 0.2000 MYR, calculated fair value 0.0900 MYR (−55%), Quality Score 62/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5649 calculated?
We run Golden Pharos Bhd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0900 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Golden Pharos Bhd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 0.2000 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 0.0900 MYR, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Golden Pharos Bhd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.1100 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Golden Pharos Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The market capitalisation of Golden Pharos Bhd is 31.7M MYR (≈ $7.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Golden Pharos Bhd is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The net margin of Golden Pharos Bhd is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Golden Pharos Bhd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golden Pharos Bhd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
The operating margin of Golden Pharos Bhd is −52.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Revenue at Golden Pharos Bhd is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Golden Pharos Bhd (5649)?
Earnings per share at Golden Pharos Bhd are growing +88.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Golden Pharos Bhd (5649) generate?
The free cash flow of Golden Pharos Bhd is −833K MYR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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