PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. S$0.01, price S$0.02, upside -36.2%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0090 SGD – 0.0530 SGD · the 0.0210 SGD price screens above the 0.0134 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Pavillon Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates and franchises restaurants in Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and Vietnam.
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Pavillon Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates and franchises restaurants in Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and Vietnam. It is involved in trading, distribution, import, and export of food products; import and export, and leasing of machinery, tools, equipment, devices, vehicles and instruments; wholesale and retail of auto parts; property management; asset management, enterprise management, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services; wholesale of coffee, cocoa, and tea; investment holding and coffee plantation; production of alcoholic beverages, beverages, and refined tea; logistics management, non-residential real estate leasing, such as conference and exhibition services, car sales, and new energy vehicle sales; warehouse and logistics management; and provision of corporate secretarial services, as well as operates food stalls. The company was formerly known as Thai Village Holdings Ltd and changed its name to Pavillon Holdings Ltd. in January 2014. Pavillon Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1991 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) currently trades at 0.0210 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0134 SGD, 36.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.0200 SGD per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the 0.0210 SGD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.0100 SGD, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. reported revenue of 16.3M SGD in FY2025 versus 9.4M SGD in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −12.0M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 30.1M SGD (≈ $23.5M) · P/S ratio 1.93 · EPS (TTM) −0.0100 SGD · Net margin −73.5% · Return on equity −50.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) 16.3M SGD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −36%, 596 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.0134 SGDFair Value 0.0134 SGDBull 0.0134 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−53.7% (2020) → 11.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−73.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.44× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.16× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0134 SGD versus a price of 0.0210 SGD, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 596?
Our model-based fair value for PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is 0.0134 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.0210 SGD.
What is the quality score of 596?
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0134 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 3 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0134 SGD, about −36% upside versus a price of 0.0210 SGD (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.3M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. it is 0.0134 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.0210 SGD. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 596 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.0210 SGD, fair value 0.0134 SGD, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 596?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.0210 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0134 SGD). For PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. the two are 0.0076 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. worth?
The market values PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. at about 30.1M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.0210 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0134 SGD per share.
What is the PEG ratio of 596?
The PEG ratio of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is 3.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Balance-sheet figures for PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −50.9%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 596 from its 52-week high?
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. trades at 0.0210 SGD, about 51% below its 52-week high of 0.0430 SGD and 50% above the low of 0.0140 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0134 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.0210 SGD, calculated fair value 0.0134 SGD (−36%), Quality Score 31/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 596 calculated?
We run PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0134 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 0.0210 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.0134 SGD, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0134 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The market capitalisation of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is 30.1M SGD (≈ $23.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is 1.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Earnings per share at PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. are −0.0100 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The net margin of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is −73.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is −50.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
The operating margin of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Revenue at PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is growing −12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596)?
Earnings per share at PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. are growing +676% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) generate?
The free cash flow of PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. is −1.9M SGD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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