PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SG · Market cap 31.6M SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +20.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0150 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0090 SGD – 0.0530 SGD · the 0.0240 SGD price screens above the 0.0150 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. (596) currently trades at 0.0240 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0150 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. generated revenue of 16.3M SGD at a net margin of -73.5%. Revenue declined 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -50.9%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -38%, 596 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.0200 SGD) versus Multiples (0.0100 SGD). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pavillon Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates and franchises restaurants in Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and Vietnam.
Full company description
Pavillon Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates and franchises restaurants in Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and Vietnam. It is involved in trading, distribution, import, and export of food products; import and export, and leasing of machinery, tools, equipment, devices, vehicles and instruments; wholesale and retail of auto parts; property management; asset management, enterprise management, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services; wholesale of coffee, cocoa, and tea; investment holding and coffee plantation; production of alcoholic beverages, beverages, and refined tea; logistics management, non-residential real estate leasing, such as conference and exhibition services, car sales, and new energy vehicle sales; warehouse and logistics management; and provision of corporate secretarial services, as well as operates food stalls. The company was formerly known as Thai Village Holdings Ltd and changed its name to Pavillon Holdings Ltd. in January 2014. Pavillon Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1991 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PAVILLON HOLDINGS LTD. reported revenue of 16.3M SGD in FY2025 versus 9.4M SGD in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −12.0M SGD in FY2025.
596 screens 38% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 228 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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