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Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nagoya Railroad Co €10.54, price €10.20, upside +3.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3649800004

In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

NR Broad data Sep 30, 2026

Nagoya Railroad Co

59V · F

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value €10.54 · Fairly valued (+3.3%)
!Quality 50/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +7.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€15.70 €8.40 Fair Value €10.54 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €8.40 – €15.70 · fair‑value band €7.44 – €13.82 · the €10.20 price screens below the €10.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railroad business in Japan. The company operates through Traffic, Transport, Real Estate, Leisure and Services, Distribution, and Aviation Services segments. The Traffic segment is involved in the railroads, buses, and taxis related businesses.

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Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railroad business in Japan. The company operates through Traffic, Transport, Real Estate, Leisure and Services, Distribution, and Aviation Services segments. The Traffic segment is involved in the railroads, buses, and taxis related businesses. The Transport segment engages in the trucking and maritime transportation activities. The Real Estate segment develops and leases real estate properties, as well as management of buildings and condominiums. The Leisure and Services segment operates hotels, restaurants, and tourist and travel facilities. The Distribution segment operates department stores and convenience stores; and distributes other merchandise. The Aviation Services segment offers general aviation and flight catering services. The company is also involved in the planning, design and construction of electrical equipment, vehicle maintenance for buses, taxis and passenger cars; system development and maintenance; car leasing and car sharing; information processing; insurance agency; and other businesses. The company was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

Stock analysis

Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) currently trades at €10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.54, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.2%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.20 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the €10.20 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €3.26, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €7.44 (bear) to €13.82 (bull), the price of €10.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Nagoya Railroad Co reported revenue of ¥692B in FY2026 versus ¥491B in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥23.0B in FY2026, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €2.0B · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) €0.5800 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 3%, 59V screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €7.44 Fair Value €10.54 Bull €13.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €10.44 €10.43 €10.95 73
Growth DCF €6.58 €17.10 €31.93 70
Rev-Margin DCF n/a €5.35 €13.25 66
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
5Y P/E Exit n/a €5.44 €12.29 65
10Y P/E Exit €1.48 €7.85 €15.64 56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.48 €15.74 €21.17 62
Lynch FV €3.67 €5.25 €6.82 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.90 €3.78 €5.72 64
DDM Multi-Stage €1.90 €3.26 €3.99 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €10.37 €13.83 €17.29 63
P/B Multiple €8.40 €11.20 €14.00 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €6.96 €9.33 €13.92 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €6.58 €17.10 €31.93 70
Rev-Margin DCF n/a €5.35 €13.25 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income €10.44 €10.43 €10.95 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 97
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 360 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +3.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.9% · Below median
Return on assets 1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.16× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)38 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)42 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Nagoya Railroad Co · Fair Value
€10.54 +3%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nagoya Railroad Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/59V

Frequently asked questions

Is Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.54 versus a price of €10.20, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 59V?
Our model-based fair value for Nagoya Railroad Co is €10.54 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.20.
What is the quality score of 59V?
Nagoya Railroad Co has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.54 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.44, optimistic scenario €13.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nagoya Railroad Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.54, about +3% upside versus a price of €10.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €7.44, optimistic scenario €13.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Nagoya Railroad Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥680B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Nagoya Railroad Co pay a dividend?
Nagoya Railroad Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nagoya Railroad Co would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 59V use?
Our models discount Nagoya Railroad Co at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nagoya Railroad Co that is +1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Nagoya Railroad Co grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nagoya Railroad Co (+1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.32 %: that much free cash flow Nagoya Railroad Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nagoya Railroad Co it is €10.54 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €10.20. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nagoya Railroad Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 59V trades below its calculated fair value: price €10.20, fair value €10.54, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 59V?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.54). For Nagoya Railroad Co the two are €0.3400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nagoya Railroad Co worth?
The market values Nagoya Railroad Co at about €2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €10.20; our models calculate a fair value of €10.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 59V?
Our models span a range for Nagoya Railroad Co: cautious scenario €7.44, base €10.54, optimistic €13.82 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €10.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 59V?
Nagoya Railroad Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nagoya Railroad Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 59V from its 52-week high?
Nagoya Railroad Co trades at €10.20, about 4% below its 52-week high of €10.60 and 21% above the low of €8.40 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nagoya Railroad Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nagoya Railroad Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €10.20, calculated fair value €10.54 (+3%), Quality Score 50/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 59V calculated?
We run Nagoya Railroad Co through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nagoya Railroad Co currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €10.20. Our model-based fair value is €10.54, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nagoya Railroad Co right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€7.44 to €13.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Nagoya Railroad Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The market capitalisation of Nagoya Railroad Co is €2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nagoya Railroad Co is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Earnings per share at Nagoya Railroad Co are €0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The dividend yield of Nagoya Railroad Co is 3.2% (payout 55.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The net margin of Nagoya Railroad Co is 3.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nagoya Railroad Co is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nagoya Railroad Co is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
The operating margin of Nagoya Railroad Co is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Revenue at Nagoya Railroad Co is growing −6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nagoya Railroad Co (59V)?
Earnings per share at Nagoya Railroad Co are growing +86.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nagoya Railroad Co (59V) carry?
The net debt of Nagoya Railroad Co is ¥619B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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