Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Toho Gas Co (59W) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Toho Gas Co €8.32, price €6.85, upside +21.5%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Utilities · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3600200004

In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

TG Broad data Sep 30, 2026

Toho Gas Co

59W · F

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value €8.32 · Undervalued (+21.5%)

!Quality 48/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −2.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.8% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓1.7% dividend yield · Well covered

!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)

!Narrow moat 36/100

!Weak on past: 21 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear €6.27 to bull €10.56 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 48/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.49 – €9.53 · fair‑value band €6.27 – €10.56 · the €6.85 price screens below the €8.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the gas, LPG and other energy, electric power, and other businesses in Japan and internationally.

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the gas, LPG and other energy, electric power, and other businesses in Japan and internationally. The company is involved in the extraction and trade of natural gas and other energy resources; sale of coke, tar products, petroleum products, paving materials, automobiles, daily necessities, food, and beverages; design, supervision, and construction of civil engineering, architectural, electrical, plumbing, and machinery installation works; and sale, leasing, and management of real estate. It also manufactures, transports, and sells high-pressure gases, including liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and liquefied carbon dioxide; gas appliances, air conditioning equipment, kitchen equipment, water supply and drainage equipment, and household electrical appliances; and methanol and plasticizers. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of air pollution prevention equipment, water pollution prevention equipment, and waste treatment equipment for environmental conservation; soil regeneration treatment; production, sale, and rental of computer-related hardware and software; and sale and rental of crime prevention and disaster prevention equipment. Further, it provides information processing and provision services, communication services, and security services, as well as surveys, research, and consulting services. Additionally, the company is involved in the management of cooking classes, cultural classes, sports facilities, hot spring facilities, training facilities, rental conference rooms, and accommodation facilities; restaurant business and travel agency business; general leasing, finance, advertising, labor dispatch and truck transportation; and non-life insurance agency and life insurance solicitation businesses. Toho Gas Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1922 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

Stock analysis

Toho Gas Co (59W) currently trades at €6.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.32, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €8.95 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the €6.85 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.33, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €6.27 (bear) to €10.56 (bull), the price of €6.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Toho Gas Co reported revenue of ¥651B in FY2026 versus ¥515B in FY2022, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥31.4B in FY2026, compounding +19.4%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €2.5B · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) €0.4600 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 21%, 59W screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.27 Fair Value €8.32 Bull €10.56

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF €8.35 €11.68 €18.12 76

Growth DCF €8.73 €11.96 €17.69 75

Residual Income €6.08 €6.36 €6.88 73

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF €8.35 €11.68 €18.12 76

5Y Revenue Exit €4.81 €6.85 €9.91 70

5Y EBITDA Exit €6.61 €9.91 €14.44 72

5Y P/E Exit €5.76 €8.47 €11.85 68

10Y Revenue Exit €6.03 €7.91 €9.93 65

10Y EBITDA Exit €7.22 €9.86 €12.73 67

10Y P/E Exit €6.72 €8.95 €11.13 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd €3.40 €5.28 €6.31 64

EPV €1.90 €2.48 €2.97 71

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €1.14 €1.33 €1.54 67

DDM Multi-Stage €1.14 €1.47 €1.89 65

Multiples

P/E Multiple €6.76 €9.01 €11.26 63

P/S Multiple €6.38 €8.51 €10.64 58

P/B Multiple €6.38 €8.51 €10.64 55

EV/EBIT €3.96 €5.86 €7.76 65

EV/EBITDA €6.64 €9.44 €12.23 67

EV/Revenue €2.87 €4.85 €6.82 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €3.80 €5.09 €7.60 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF €8.73 €11.96 €17.69 75

Rev-Margin DCF €4.81 €7.08 €10.07 70

Economic Profit

Residual Income €6.08 €6.36 €6.88 73

ROIC Compounder €1.90 €2.48 €2.97 69

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E €4.80 €6.86 €8.92 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 39

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 38

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 73

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 63

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 81

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 87

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 45

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 57

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 0

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−0.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−2.7%

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

−8.4%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−10.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%

Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−6.6%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+0.1%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.5% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.5%

Forecast 2028 (sales)−1.3%

Projected 2029 (sales)−0.9%

Projected 2030 (sales)−0.5%

Projected 2031 (sales)−0.1%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 48 · Below median

Fair Value upside +21.5% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 5.1% · Bottom 25%

Return on assets 1.6% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 3.8% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 5.3% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −10.3% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.32× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.9× · Cheaper than median

P/B 0.93× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.70× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 6.8× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)62 · sector 38

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 13

PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 34

HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 83

DIVIDEND (yield)35 · sector 73

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY	€29.10	€32.79	+13%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO	$156.38	$77.00	−51%
Uniper SE UN0	€45.25	€45.97	+2%
NiSource Inc NI	$39.50	$19.90	−50%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003	HK$7.08	HK$4.79	−32%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL	₹172.70	₹132.97	−23%
Italgas S.p.A IG	€8.35	€9.19	+10%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803	¥18.54	¥36.99	+100%
UGI Corporation UGI	$36.24	$32.74	−10%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688	HK$48.76	HK$107.85	+121%

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Toho Gas Co · Fair Value
€8.32 +18%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/59W" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Toho Gas Co · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">€8.32</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+18%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toho Gas Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/59W

Frequently asked questions

Is Toho Gas Co (59W) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.32 versus a price of €6.85, about +21% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 59W?

Our model-based fair value for Toho Gas Co is €8.32 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.85.

What is the quality score of 59W?

Toho Gas Co has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.32 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.27, optimistic scenario €10.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Toho Gas Co stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €8.32, about +21% upside versus a price of €6.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.27, optimistic scenario €10.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Toho Gas Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥634B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).

Does Toho Gas Co pay a dividend?

Toho Gas Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).

What growth is priced into Toho Gas Co (59W)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toho Gas Co would have to grow free cash flow by -6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 59W use?

Our models discount Toho Gas Co at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toho Gas Co that is -6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Toho Gas Co (59W) delivered so far?

Over the past 4 years revenue at Toho Gas Co grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Toho Gas Co (59W) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toho Gas Co (-6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.85 %: that much free cash flow Toho Gas Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toho Gas Co it is €8.32 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €6.85. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Toho Gas Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 30, 2026, 59W trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.85, fair value €8.32, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 59W?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.32). For Toho Gas Co the two are €1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Toho Gas Co worth?

The market values Toho Gas Co at about €2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €6.85; our models calculate a fair value of €8.32 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 59W?

Our models span a range for Toho Gas Co: cautious scenario €6.27, base €8.32, optimistic €10.56 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €6.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 59W?

Toho Gas Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.5.

How solid is the balance sheet of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Balance-sheet figures for Toho Gas Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 59W from its 52-week high?

Toho Gas Co trades at €6.85, about 7% below its 52-week high of €7.36 and 17% above the low of €5.87 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.32 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Toho Gas Co?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Toho Gas Co stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €6.85, calculated fair value €8.32 (+21%), Quality Score 48/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 59W calculated?

We run Toho Gas Co through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Toho Gas Co currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €6.85. Our model-based fair value is €8.32, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Toho Gas Co right now?

Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Toho Gas Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The market capitalisation of Toho Gas Co is €2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Toho Gas Co is 0.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Earnings per share at Toho Gas Co are €0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The dividend yield of Toho Gas Co is 1.7% (payout 25.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The net margin of Toho Gas Co is 4.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Toho Gas Co is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toho Gas Co is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Toho Gas Co (59W)?

The operating margin of Toho Gas Co is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Revenue at Toho Gas Co is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Toho Gas Co (59W)?

Earnings per share at Toho Gas Co are growing −39.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Toho Gas Co (59W) carry?

The net debt of Toho Gas Co is ¥110B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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