Minmetals Development Co (600058) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 10.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥2.55 to ¥4.40 (+72.5%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥2.64 to ¥5.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.90 – ¥15.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.64 – ¥5.68 · the ¥10.65 price screens above the ¥4.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Minmetals Development Co (600058) currently trades at ¥10.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.40, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Minmetals Development Co generated revenue of 51.1B CNY at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue declined 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.64 (bear case) to ¥5.68 (bull case); at ¥10.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -59%, 600058 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥13.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. engages in resource trading, metal trading, and supply chain services in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Steel Trading, Metallurgical Raw Materials Trading, Smelting and Processing, Logistics Services, Bidding and Tendering Services, and Other.
Full company description
Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. engages in resource trading, metal trading, and supply chain services in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Steel Trading, Metallurgical Raw Materials Trading, Smelting and Processing, Logistics Services, Bidding and Tendering Services, and Other. It offers iron ore, chrome ore, manganese ore, ferroalloys, coal, coke, scrap steel, electrolytic manganese, metallurgical raw materials, and ferroalloy products, as well as steel and metal products to engineering construction and industrial manufacturing sectors. The company also provides supply chain services, including warehousing and processing, shipping/freight forwarding, online freight, insurance brokerage, bidding agency, and online transaction services to steel mills and end users; shipping agency, and ocean freight services, such as dry bulk, general cargo, container and engineering logistics; insurance brokerage services, such as risk management consulting services; bidding services, such as central government investment projects, international bidding for electromechanical products, engineering bidding, and government procurement. In addition, it offers futures delivery and tendering agency services; as well as trades and distributes ferrous metals. Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Minmetals Development Co reported revenue of ¥52.8B in FY2025 versus ¥87.5B in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥19.1M in FY2025, compounding −55.3%/yr from FY2021.
600058 screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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