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Minmetals Development Co (600058) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 10.9B CNY

MD Minmetals Development Co 600058 · SHG
Price¥10.65
Fair Value¥4.40
Upside-58.7%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.34% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 20/100
Evidence: High Range ¥2.64 – ¥5.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥2.55 to ¥4.40 (+72.5%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥2.64 to ¥5.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥15.80 ¥5.90 Fair Value ¥4.40 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.90 – ¥15.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.64 – ¥5.68 · the ¥10.65 price screens above the ¥4.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Minmetals Development Co (600058) currently trades at ¥10.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.40, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Minmetals Development Co generated revenue of 51.1B CNY at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue declined 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.64 (bear case) to ¥5.68 (bull case); at ¥10.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -59%, 600058 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥14.89 ¥19.53 ¥25.86 80
Residual Income ¥4.65 ¥4.31 ¥2.92 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.54 ¥13.53 ¥16.79 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥14.55 ¥19.54 ¥26.63 38
Owner Earnings ¥4.40 ¥4.91 ¥5.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.54 ¥13.35 ¥16.73 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥11.45 ¥14.98 ¥18.85 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥7.51 ¥7.98 ¥8.38 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥11.79 ¥14.58 ¥17.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥12.51 ¥15.68 ¥19.43 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥10.05 ¥10.96 ¥11.81 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.1200 ¥0.2800 ¥0.3600 54
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.0500 ¥0.0700 ¥0.0900 46
EPV ¥7.21 ¥7.87 ¥8.45 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.35 ¥2.29 ¥3.42 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.35 ¥2.00 ¥2.71 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.2800 ¥0.3700 ¥0.4700 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.2300 ¥0.3000 ¥0.3800 58
P/B Multiple ¥0.2300 ¥0.3000 ¥0.3800 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.71 ¥13.20 ¥15.69 53
EV/EBITDA ¥10.60 ¥13.05 ¥15.50 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.58 ¥10.86 ¥13.14 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.46 ¥4.64 ¥6.92 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥14.89 ¥19.53 ¥25.86 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.54 ¥13.53 ¥16.79 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.65 ¥4.31 ¥2.92 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.25 ¥8.16 ¥9.20 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.2100 ¥0.3000 ¥0.3900 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥13.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 51.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -14.3%
Net margin -0.1%
Return on equity -0.4%
Free cash flow 1.1B CNY FY2025
Operating margin 0.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0900
Dividend yield 0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -74.7%
Net cash 2.0B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. engages in resource trading, metal trading, and supply chain services in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Steel Trading, Metallurgical Raw Materials Trading, Smelting and Processing, Logistics Services, Bidding and Tendering Services, and Other.

Full company description

Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. engages in resource trading, metal trading, and supply chain services in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Steel Trading, Metallurgical Raw Materials Trading, Smelting and Processing, Logistics Services, Bidding and Tendering Services, and Other. It offers iron ore, chrome ore, manganese ore, ferroalloys, coal, coke, scrap steel, electrolytic manganese, metallurgical raw materials, and ferroalloy products, as well as steel and metal products to engineering construction and industrial manufacturing sectors. The company also provides supply chain services, including warehousing and processing, shipping/freight forwarding, online freight, insurance brokerage, bidding agency, and online transaction services to steel mills and end users; shipping agency, and ocean freight services, such as dry bulk, general cargo, container and engineering logistics; insurance brokerage services, such as risk management consulting services; bidding services, such as central government investment projects, international bidding for electromechanical products, engineering bidding, and government procurement. In addition, it offers futures delivery and tendering agency services; as well as trades and distributes ferrous metals. Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Minmetals Development Co reported revenue of ¥52.8B in FY2025 versus ¥87.5B in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥19.1M in FY2025, compounding −55.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
52.8B CNY
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−8.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (30Y)
+10.6%
Revenue −11.9%/yr
FY21 ¥87.5B
FY22 ¥81.5B
FY23 ¥79.0B
FY24 ¥67.2B
FY25 ¥52.8B
Net income −55.3%/yr
FY21 ¥479M
FY22 ¥366M
FY23 ¥199M
FY24 ¥126M
FY25 ¥19.1M

600058 screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Minmetals Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600058

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −59% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth -14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 4
PAST 0 · sector 15
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 7 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tata Steel Limited TTST $0.2010 $0.2000 -0%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,210 ARS +53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Minmetals Development Co (600058) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.40 versus a price of ¥10.65, about −59% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600058?
Our model-based fair value for Minmetals Development Co is ¥4.40 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥10.65.
What is the quality score of 600058?
Minmetals Development Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Minmetals Development Co (600058)?
Minmetals Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 51.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600058?
The net profit margin of Minmetals Development Co is about -0.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Minmetals Development Co pay a dividend?
Minmetals Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.35% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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