Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Minmetals Development Co Ltd stock ¥13.95, price ¥8.61, upside +62.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.90 – ¥15.80 · fair‑value band ¥10.61 – ¥17.30 · the ¥8.61 price screens below the ¥13.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. engages in resource trading, metal trading, and supply chain services in China and internationally.
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The company operates through six segments: Steel Trading, Metallurgical Raw Materials Trading, Smelting and Processing, Logistics Services, Bidding and Tendering Services, and Other.
It offers iron ore, chrome ore, manganese ore, ferroalloys, coal, coke, scrap steel, electrolytic manganese, metallurgical raw materials, and ferroalloy products, as well as steel and metal products to engineering construction and industrial manufacturing sectors.
The company also provides supply chain services, including warehousing and processing, shipping/freight forwarding, online freight, insurance brokerage, bidding agency, and online transaction services to steel mills and end users; shipping agency, and ocean freight services, such as dry bulk, general cargo, container and engineering logistics; insurance brokerage services, such as risk management consulting services; bidding services, such as central government investment projects, international bidding for electromechanical products, engineering bidding, and government procurement.
In addition, it offers futures delivery and tendering agency services; as well as trades and distributes ferrous metals. Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Minmetals Development Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation.
Stock analysis
Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) currently trades at ¥8.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.95, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥14.75 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥8.61 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.66, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥10.61 (bear) to ¥17.30 (bull), the price of ¥8.61 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Minmetals Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 52.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 87.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 19.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −55.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.2B CNY (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1400 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 62%, 600058 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥10.61Fair Value ¥13.95Bull¥17.30
Price ¥8.61 · Upside +62.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥13.19¥16.57¥20.7182
Growth DCF¥13.36¥16.43¥20.0480
Owner Earnings¥5.67¥6.49¥7.5078
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥13.19¥16.57¥20.7182
Owner Earnings¥5.67¥6.49¥7.5078
5Y Revenue Exit¥10.31¥12.89¥15.9774
5Y EBITDA Exit¥11.14¥14.37¥17.8977
5Y P/E Exit¥7.56¥8.02¥8.4072
10Y Revenue Exit¥11.33¥13.72¥16.5268
10Y EBITDA Exit¥11.93¥14.63¥17.7970
10Y P/E Exit¥9.90¥10.74¥11.5265
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.1200¥0.2800¥0.360065
PEG = 1.0¥0.0500¥0.0700¥0.090057
EPV¥6.54¥6.98¥7.3574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.13¥1.74¥2.3268
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.13¥1.57¥1.9967
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥0.2800¥0.3700¥0.470063
P/S Multiple¥0.2300¥0.3000¥0.380058
P/B Multiple¥21.23¥28.31¥35.3955
EV/EBIT¥9.36¥11.85¥14.3466
EV/EBITDA¥9.25¥11.70¥14.1567
EV/Revenue¥7.23¥9.51¥11.7954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.86¥4.34¥5.4254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥13.36¥16.43¥20.0480
Rev-Margin DCF¥10.31¥13.07¥16.0974
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.67¥3.96¥4.3576
ROIC Compounder¥6.54¥7.00¥7.5472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥0.2100¥0.3000¥0.390067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Per share before 2008divided by the spin-off factor 1.2399
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−41.1% vs −16.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 0%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price.
Compare Minmetals Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.19× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.2× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Minmetals Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600058
Frequently asked questions
Is Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.95 versus a price of ¥8.61, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600058?
Our model-based fair value for Minmetals Development Co Ltd is ¥13.95 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.61.
What is the quality score of 600058?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.95 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.61, optimistic scenario ¥17.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Minmetals Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.95, about +62% upside versus a price of ¥8.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥10.61, optimistic scenario ¥17.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 49.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Minmetals Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.39% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.034 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was May 21, 2026. The payout ratio is 191% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 31.26 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Minmetals Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600058 use?
Our models discount Minmetals Development Co Ltd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Minmetals Development Co Ltd that is -10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Minmetals Development Co Ltd grew -4.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Minmetals Development Co Ltd (-10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.35 %: that much free cash flow Minmetals Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Minmetals Development Co Ltd it is ¥13.95 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥8.61. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Minmetals Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 600058 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.61, fair value ¥13.95, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600058?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.95). For Minmetals Development Co Ltd the two are ¥5.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Minmetals Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Minmetals Development Co Ltd at about 9.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.61; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600058?
Our models span a range for Minmetals Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥10.61, base ¥13.95, optimistic ¥17.30 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥8.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Balance-sheet figures for Minmetals Development Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −1.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600058 from its 52-week high?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd trades at ¥8.61, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥15.80 and 7% above the low of ¥8.05 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Minmetals Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Minmetals Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥8.61, calculated fair value ¥13.95 (+62%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600058 calculated?
We run Minmetals Development Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥13.95 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Minmetals Development Co Ltd currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥8.61. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.95, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Minmetals Development Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) come from?
Earnings per share at Minmetals Development Co Ltd grew −0.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.1 %, EBIT margin +10.6 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Minmetals Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The market capitalisation of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is 9.2B CNY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Earnings per share at Minmetals Development Co Ltd are ¥−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The dividend yield of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The net margin of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is −0.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
The operating margin of Minmetals Development Co Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Revenue at Minmetals Development Co Ltd is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058)?
Earnings per share at Minmetals Development Co Ltd are growing −74.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Minmetals Development Co Ltd (600058) hold?
Minmetals Development Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026