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Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd ¥0.55, price ¥2.19, upside -74.9%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE000000TF5

XS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Xining Special Steel Co Ltd

600117 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥0.5500 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
!Quality 33/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -16.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥5.22 ¥1.90 Fair Value ¥0.5500 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.90 – ¥5.22 · fair‑value band ¥0.3600 – ¥0.8100 · the ¥2.19 price screens above the ¥0.5500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Xining Special Steel.Co.,Ltd engages in the smelting, rolling, and processing of special steel products in China. It operates through four segments: Real Estate Development and Sales, Steelmaking and Rolling Steel division, Comprehensive Resource Utilization, and Commerce and Other.

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Xining Special Steel.Co.,Ltd engages in the smelting, rolling, and processing of special steel products in China. It operates through four segments: Real Estate Development and Sales, Steelmaking and Rolling Steel division, Comprehensive Resource Utilization, and Commerce and Other. The company provides carbon structural steel, carbon industrial steel, alloy structural steel, alloy industrial steel, bearing steel, die steel, stainless steel, and spring steel; and hot-rolled bars, forged bars, cold-drawn silver bright material, special-shaped electroslag castings, and other products. It is also involved in the research and development and promotion of new smelting technologies and new aluminum alloy materials; mineral products, metallurgical castings and metallurgical furnace materials, iron art, building materials, construction materials, etc.; production and sales of blast furnace pig iron; sintered ore and pelletized ore; slag, fire slag, iron slag, coke, coke powder, coke diced, etc.; and providing mining technical and mining product management. Its products are used in automobiles, engineering machinery, railways, ships, petrochemicals, mining machinery, coal machinery, new energy, national important equipment, and other industries. Xining Special Steel.Co.,Ltd was founded in 1997 and is based in Xining, China.

Stock analysis

Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) currently trades at ¥2.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 298.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥0.7600 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the ¥2.19 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ¥0.2500, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.3600 (bear) to ¥0.8100 (bull), the price of ¥2.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Xining Special Steel Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 12.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −16.6%/yr. Reported net income was −900M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3100 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −15.2% · Return on equity −21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.7% · Operating margin −15.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −75%, 600117 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.3600 Fair Value ¥0.5500 Bull ¥0.8100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥0.3300 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7800 80
Growth DCF ¥0.3400 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7400 78
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.1000 ¥0.1500 ¥0.2100 73
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥0.3300 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7800 80
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.1000 ¥0.1500 ¥0.2100 73
10Y Revenue Exit ¥0.1900 ¥0.2500 ¥0.3200 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.3500 ¥0.6000 ¥0.9000 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3500 ¥0.5100 ¥0.6800 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a ¥0.0400 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.5700 ¥0.7600 ¥1.13 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥0.3400 ¥0.5200 ¥0.7400 78

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 31
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.3% (2020) → −10.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.1% a year for the price.

600117 screens 298% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −17% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 37.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)63 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)35 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.66 $116.05 −53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.99 $127.14 −46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,267 ₹1,127 −11%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹184.97 ₹147.13 −20%
Reliance, Inc RS $386.95 $211.57 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.73 ¥8.07 +41%
POSCO Holdings PKX $59.05 $68.58 +16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.12 ¥0.5500 −74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,141 ₹516.27 −55%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,857 ₹771.10 −58%

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Xining Special Steel Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥0.5500 −298%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xining Special Steel Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600117

Frequently asked questions

Is Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.5500 versus a price of ¥2.19, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600117?
Our model-based fair value for Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is ¥0.5500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.19.
What is the quality score of 600117?
Xining Special Steel Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.5500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3600, optimistic scenario ¥0.8100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xining Special Steel Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.5500, about −75% upside versus a price of ¥2.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3600, optimistic scenario ¥0.8100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Xining Special Steel Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Xining Special Steel Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xining Special Steel Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xining Special Steel Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +66.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600117 use?
Our models discount Xining Special Steel Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xining Special Steel Co Ltd that is +66.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd grew -10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +66.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (+66.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.40 %: that much free cash flow Xining Special Steel Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xining Special Steel Co Ltd it is ¥0.5500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥2.19. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xining Special Steel Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600117 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.19, fair value ¥0.5500, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600117?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.5500). For Xining Special Steel Co Ltd the two are ¥1.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xining Special Steel Co Ltd worth?
The market values Xining Special Steel Co Ltd at about 7.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.5500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600117?
Our models span a range for Xining Special Steel Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.3600, base ¥0.5500, optimistic ¥0.8100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥2.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −21.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600117 from its 52-week high?
Xining Special Steel Co Ltd trades at ¥2.19, about 58% below its 52-week high of ¥5.18 and 4% above the low of ¥2.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.5500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xining Special Steel Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xining Special Steel Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥2.19, calculated fair value ¥0.5500 (−75%), Quality Score 33/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600117 calculated?
We run Xining Special Steel Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.5500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Xining Special Steel Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥2.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.5500, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xining Special Steel Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.8100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.3600 to ¥0.8100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The market capitalisation of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is 1.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Earnings per share at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd are ¥−0.3100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The dividend yield of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The net margin of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is −15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is −21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is −5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
The operating margin of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is −15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Revenue at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117)?
Earnings per share at Xining Special Steel Co Ltd are growing +406% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xining Special Steel Co Ltd (600117) carry?
The net debt of Xining Special Steel Co Ltd is 927M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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