Herfy Food Services Co (6002) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Herfy Food Services Co stock SAR 23.84, price SAR 12.67, upside +88.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.35 SAR – 76.22 SAR · fair‑value band 19.15 SAR – 31.15 SAR · the 12.67 SAR price screens below the 23.84 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Herfy Food Services Company establishes and operates restaurants in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through Restaurants, Meat Factory, and Bakeries. It operates restaurants under the HERFY name.
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The company also produces and sells frozen products, bakery and pastry products through bakeries and bakery shops under the Herfy Bakeries/Dokka name; and meat products.
In addition, it provides cooked meals; catering services; purchases and sells land for constructing buildings; and owns, uses, maintains, and leases warehouses and food store fridges. Herfy Food Services Company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Herfy Food Services Co (6002) currently trades at 12.67 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23.84 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 46.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 21.80 SAR per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the 12.67 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 8.72 SAR, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 19.15 SAR (bear) to 31.15 SAR (bull), the price of 12.67 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Herfy Food Services Co reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.3B SAR in FY2021, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was −77.5M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 818M SAR (≈ $218M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) −0.9300 SAR · Net margin −5.8% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 4.2% · Revenue (TTM) 1.0B SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 88%, 6002 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear19.15 SARFair Value 23.84 SARBull31.15 SAR
Price 12.67 SAR · Upside +88.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.5% (2020) → −0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.8% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+88.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−5.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Herfy Food Services Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6002
Frequently asked questions
Is Herfy Food Services Co (6002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23.84 SAR versus a price of 12.67 SAR, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6002?
Our model-based fair value for Herfy Food Services Co is 23.84 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.67 SAR.
What is the quality score of 6002?
Herfy Food Services Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23.84 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 19.15 SAR, optimistic scenario 31.15 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Herfy Food Services Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23.84 SAR, about +88% upside versus a price of 12.67 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 19.15 SAR, optimistic scenario 31.15 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Herfy Food Services Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Herfy Food Services Co would have to grow free cash flow by -7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.1 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6002 use?
Our models discount Herfy Food Services Co at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Herfy Food Services Co that is -7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Herfy Food Services Co (6002) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Herfy Food Services Co grew +0.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Herfy Food Services Co (6002) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Herfy Food Services Co (-7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.85 %: that much free cash flow Herfy Food Services Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Herfy Food Services Co it is 23.84 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 12.67 SAR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Herfy Food Services Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 6002 trades below its calculated fair value: price 12.67 SAR, fair value 23.84 SAR, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6002?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.67 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23.84 SAR). For Herfy Food Services Co the two are 11.17 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Herfy Food Services Co worth?
The market values Herfy Food Services Co at about 818M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 12.67 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 23.84 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6002?
Our models span a range for Herfy Food Services Co: cautious scenario 19.15 SAR, base 23.84 SAR, optimistic 31.15 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 12.67 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Balance-sheet figures for Herfy Food Services Co (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity −6.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6002 from its 52-week high?
Herfy Food Services Co trades at 12.67 SAR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 21.06 SAR and 12% above the low of 11.35 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23.84 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Herfy Food Services Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Herfy Food Services Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 12.67 SAR, calculated fair value 23.84 SAR (+88%), Quality Score 60/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6002 calculated?
We run Herfy Food Services Co through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 23.84 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Herfy Food Services Co currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 12.67 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 23.84 SAR, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Herfy Food Services Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (19.15 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Herfy Food Services Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The market capitalisation of Herfy Food Services Co is 818M SAR (≈ $218M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Herfy Food Services Co is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Earnings per share at Herfy Food Services Co are −0.9300 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The net margin of Herfy Food Services Co is −5.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Herfy Food Services Co is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Herfy Food Services Co is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
The operating margin of Herfy Food Services Co is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Revenue at Herfy Food Services Co is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Herfy Food Services Co (6002)?
Earnings per share at Herfy Food Services Co are growing +358% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Herfy Food Services Co (6002) carry?
The net debt of Herfy Food Services Co is 444M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026