Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group (600313) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 6.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥1.30 to ¥1.27 (−2.3%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.33 – ¥15.84 · fair‑value band ¥0.9200 – ¥1.53 · the ¥5.76 price screens above the ¥1.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group (600313) currently trades at ¥5.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.27, implying the stock looks roughly 78.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group generated revenue of 6.7B CNY at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 674M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.9200 (bear case) to ¥1.53 (bull case); at ¥5.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -78%, 600313 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥3.19) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.6200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of crop seeds and pesticides in China. The company offers various seeds, such as wheat, corn, rice, rapeseed, soybeans, and oilseeds. It is also involved in fertilizer trading and proprietary varieties.
Full company description
Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of crop seeds and pesticides in China. The company offers various seeds, such as wheat, corn, rice, rapeseed, soybeans, and oilseeds. It is also involved in fertilizer trading and proprietary varieties. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group reported revenue of ¥6.7B in FY2025 versus ¥3.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥83.6M in FY2025, compounding +23.2%/yr from FY2021.
600313 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 291 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,845 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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