Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd stock ¥0.34, price ¥2.43, upside -86.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.26 – ¥6.28 · fair‑value band ¥0.2600 – ¥0.5100 · the ¥2.43 price screens above the ¥0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 31, 2026.
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Tonghua Grape Wine Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells fruit wines and wine in China. The company offers various categories of wines, such as dry wine, ice wine, sweet wine, and grape spirits under the Hongmei, Tonghua, Tianchi, and other brands. It also sells its products through e-commerce platforms.
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The company was founded in 1937 and is based in Tonghua, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365) currently trades at ¥2.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3400, 86.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: ¥0.2600 (bear) to ¥0.5100 (bull), the price of ¥2.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd reported revenue of 868M CNY in FY2024 versus 608M CNY in FY2020, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was −49.9M CNY in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B CNY (≈ $166M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2100 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −17.3% · Return on equity −41.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin −39.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −86%, 600365 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥0.2600Fair Value ¥0.3400Bull¥0.5100
Price ¥2.43 · Upside -86.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.3% (2019) → −3.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 93 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600365
Frequently asked questions
Is Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.3400 versus a price of ¥2.43, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600365?
Our model-based fair value for Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is ¥0.3400 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.43.
What is the quality score of 600365?
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.3400 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.2600, optimistic scenario ¥0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.3400, about −86% upside versus a price of ¥2.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.2600, optimistic scenario ¥0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 554M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd it is ¥0.3400 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of ¥2.43. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, 600365 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.43, fair value ¥0.3400, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600365?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.3400). For Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd the two are ¥2.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd at about 1.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.43; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600365?
Our models span a range for Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.2600, base ¥0.3400, optimistic ¥0.5100 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price ¥2.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −41.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600365 from its 52-week high?
Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd trades at ¥2.43, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥3.54 and 3% above the low of ¥2.37 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price ¥2.43, calculated fair value ¥0.3400 (−86%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600365 calculated?
We run Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was ¥2.43. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.3400, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥0.2600 to ¥0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The market capitalisation of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is 1.1B CNY (≈ $166M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is 1.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Earnings per share at Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd are ¥−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The dividend yield of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The net margin of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is −17.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is −41.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
The operating margin of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is −39.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365)?
Revenue at Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is growing −37.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365) generate?
The free cash flow of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is −504M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd (600365) carry?
The net debt of Tonghua Grape Wine Co Ltd is 11.2M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 31, 2026