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Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 14.0B CNY

TS Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co 600409 · SHG
Price¥6.77
Fair Value¥1.48
Upside-78.1%
Quality45/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.1% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.46% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.10 – ¥1.84 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.7400 to ¥1.48 (+100.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +18.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥15.17 ¥4.53 Fair Value ¥1.48 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.53 – ¥15.17 · fair‑value band ¥1.10 – ¥1.84 · the ¥6.77 price screens above the ¥1.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409) currently trades at ¥6.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.48, implying the stock looks roughly 78.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co generated revenue of 18.6B CNY at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue declined 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.2%. Net debt stands at 37.5M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.10 (bear case) to ¥1.84 (bull case); at ¥6.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -78%, 600409 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥4.54 ¥4.17 ¥2.96 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.4900 ¥0.5700 ¥0.6300 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.4800 ¥0.6800 ¥0.8900 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.2900 ¥0.9600 ¥1.28 54
Lynch FV ¥0.2200 ¥0.3100 ¥0.4000 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.2200 ¥0.3100 ¥0.4000 46
EPV ¥0.4900 ¥0.5700 ¥0.6300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.5500 ¥0.7400 ¥0.9200 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.5500 ¥0.7400 ¥0.9200 58
P/B Multiple ¥0.5500 ¥0.7400 ¥0.9200 55
EV/EBIT ¥1.04 ¥1.37 ¥1.71 53
EV/EBITDA ¥5.43 ¥7.23 ¥9.02 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.9000 ¥1.28 ¥1.65 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.36 ¥4.50 ¥6.72 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.54 ¥4.17 ¥2.96 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.4900 ¥0.5700 ¥0.6300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.4800 ¥0.6800 ¥0.8900 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥4.50) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.3100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 18.6B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.4%
Net margin 0.1%
Return on equity -0.2%
Free cash flow −697M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 617.0
More key figures
Operating margin -2.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -28.0%
Net debt 37.5M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of calcium chloride, sodium chloride, and snow melting agent in the People's Republic of China. The company offers viscose staple fibers, soda ash, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, mixed methyl cyclosiloxane, and other products.

Full company description

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of calcium chloride, sodium chloride, and snow melting agent in the People's Republic of China. The company offers viscose staple fibers, soda ash, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, mixed methyl cyclosiloxane, and other products. It also provides silicone and other salt products. It products are mainly used in textiles, glass, non-ferrous metal smelting, synthetic detergents, chemical building materials, and other industries. It also exports its products to various countries and regions in Asia, Africa, Europe, the United States, and Australia. Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tangshan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co reported revenue of ¥18.8B in FY2025 versus ¥23.2B in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥89.5M in FY2025, compounding −51.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 22/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
18.8B CNY
Latest YoY
−11.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−7.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+13.4%
Revenue −5.1%/yr
FY21 ¥23.2B
FY22 ¥23.7B
FY23 ¥21.9B
FY24 ¥21.4B
FY25 ¥18.8B
Net income −51.9%/yr
FY21 ¥1.7B
FY22 ¥989M
FY23 ¥566M
FY24 ¥499M
FY25 ¥89.5M

600409 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600409

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 677.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.75× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 0 · sector 23
HEALTH 87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 9 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.48 versus a price of ¥6.77, about −78% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600409?
Our model-based fair value for Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co is ¥1.48 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.77.
What is the quality score of 600409?
Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409)?
Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 18.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600409?
The net profit margin of Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co is about 0.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co pay a dividend?
Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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