Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Changyuan Group Ltd ¥2.09, price ¥4.91, upside -57.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.11 – ¥7.50 · fair‑value band ¥1.31 – ¥2.86 · the ¥4.91 price screens above the ¥2.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changyuan Technology Group Ltd. researches and develops, manufactures, and services industrial and power systems in China. It offers power distribution, operation and maintenance, power grid protection control and automation, energy and power consumption, status inspection and maintenance, primary equipment, and platform foundation systems.
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Changyuan Technology Group Ltd. researches and develops, manufactures, and services industrial and power systems in China. It offers power distribution, operation and maintenance, power grid protection control and automation, energy and power consumption, status inspection and maintenance, primary equipment, and platform foundation systems. The company also provides automation equipment, factory assembly, chip packaging equipment, computer interaction and automation detection, clothing equipment, medical and biological laboratory, mechanical three dimensional parking, and test solutions. Changyuan Technology Group Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) currently trades at ¥4.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.09, implying the stock looks roughly 134.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.36 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥4.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.7600, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.31 (bear) to ¥2.86 (bull), the price of ¥4.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Changyuan Group Ltd reported revenue of 7.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.5B CNY (≈ $967M) · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.7800 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin −14.4% · Return on equity −28.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −57%, 600525 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.31Fair Value ¥2.09Bull ¥2.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.8% (2020) → 0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.35× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changyuan Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600525
Frequently asked questions
Is Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.09 versus a price of ¥4.91, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600525?
Our model-based fair value for Changyuan Group Ltd is ¥2.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.91.
What is the quality score of 600525?
Changyuan Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.31, optimistic scenario ¥2.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changyuan Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.09, about −57% upside versus a price of ¥4.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.31, optimistic scenario ¥2.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Changyuan Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Changyuan Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Changyuan Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changyuan Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600525 use?
Our models discount Changyuan Group Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changyuan Group Ltd that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changyuan Group Ltd grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changyuan Group Ltd (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.40 %: that much free cash flow Changyuan Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changyuan Group Ltd it is ¥2.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.91. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changyuan Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600525 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.91, fair value ¥2.09, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600525?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.09). For Changyuan Group Ltd the two are ¥2.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changyuan Group Ltd worth?
The market values Changyuan Group Ltd at about 6.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.91; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600525?
Our models span a range for Changyuan Group Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.31, base ¥2.09, optimistic ¥2.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changyuan Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −28.7%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600525 from its 52-week high?
Changyuan Group Ltd trades at ¥4.91, about 18% below its 52-week high of ¥5.97 and 52% above the low of ¥3.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changyuan Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changyuan Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.91, calculated fair value ¥2.09 (−57%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600525 calculated?
We run Changyuan Group Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Changyuan Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥4.91. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.09, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changyuan Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥1.31 to ¥2.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) come from?
Earnings per share at Changyuan Group Ltd grew −2.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Changyuan Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The market capitalisation of Changyuan Group Ltd is 6.5B CNY (≈ $967M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changyuan Group Ltd is 0.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Earnings per share at Changyuan Group Ltd are ¥−0.7800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The dividend yield of Changyuan Group Ltd is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The net margin of Changyuan Group Ltd is −14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changyuan Group Ltd is −28.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changyuan Group Ltd is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
The operating margin of Changyuan Group Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Revenue at Changyuan Group Ltd is growing +21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changyuan Group Ltd (600525)?
Earnings per share at Changyuan Group Ltd are growing −3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Changyuan Group Ltd (600525) carry?
The net debt of Changyuan Group Ltd is 1.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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