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Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd ¥2.35, price ¥5.43, upside -56.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · CN · ISIN CNE000001GH6

XS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd

600540 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥2.35 · Strongly overvalued (−57%)
!Quality 43/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +23.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥7.78 ¥3.17 Fair Value ¥2.35 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.17 – ¥7.78 · fair‑value band ¥1.26 – ¥3.33 · the ¥5.43 price screens above the ¥2.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd engages in processing and sale of cotton products in China and internationally.

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Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd engages in processing and sale of cotton products in China and internationally. The company also provides lint cotton products used in the cotton spinning and clothing industry; cotton yarns used as weaving yarn or knitting yarn; dephenolized cottonseed protein and dephenolized cottonseed oil; and calcium oxide used as building materials, metallurgical flux, cement accelerator, flux of fluorescent powder, manufacturing calcium carbide, soda ash, and bleaching powder, as well as leather making, wastewater purification, calcium hydroxide, and various calcium compounds. In addition, it provides logistics, transportation, warehousing, and leasing services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Shuanghe, China.

Stock analysis

Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540) currently trades at ¥5.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.35, implying the stock looks roughly 131.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥2.00 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥5.43 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.4000, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥1.26 (bear) to ¥3.33 (bull), the price of ¥5.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.7%/yr. Reported net income was −142M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.2B CNY (≈ $471M) · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2000 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin −4.7% · Return on equity −27.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9% · Operating margin 3.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −57%, 600540 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥1.26 Fair Value ¥2.35 Bull ¥3.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥1.21 ¥2.19 ¥3.01 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.21 ¥2.00 ¥2.33 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.2900 ¥0.4000 ¥0.5900 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.21 ¥2.19 ¥3.01 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.21 ¥2.00 ¥2.33 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.2900 ¥0.4000 ¥0.5900 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+84.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.1% (2020) → −2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

600540 screens 131% overvalued. Compare with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 70% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)80 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $82.15 $38.02 −54%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥41.86 ¥114.67 +174%
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Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $51.36 $37.28 −27%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.90 ¥12.08 −19%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 196.70 kr 280.64 +43%
SalMar ASA SALM kr 561.00 kr 171.05 −70%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥163.80 ¥311.94 +90%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 33.20 MYR 36.52 MYR +10%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.10 THB 55.71 THB +152%

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Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥2.35 −131%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600540

Frequently asked questions

Is Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.35 versus a price of ¥5.43, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600540?
Our model-based fair value for Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is ¥2.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.43.
What is the quality score of 600540?
Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.26, optimistic scenario ¥3.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.35, about −57% upside versus a price of ¥5.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.26, optimistic scenario ¥3.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd it is ¥2.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.43. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600540 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.43, fair value ¥2.35, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600540?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.35). For Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd the two are ¥3.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd worth?
The market values Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd at about 3.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.43; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600540?
Our models span a range for Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.26, base ¥2.35, optimistic ¥3.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥5.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −27.4%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600540 from its 52-week high?
Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd trades at ¥5.43, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥7.21 and 71% above the low of ¥3.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.43, calculated fair value ¥2.35 (−57%), Quality Score 43/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600540 calculated?
We run Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥5.43. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.35, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥1.26 to ¥3.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The market capitalisation of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is 3.2B CNY (≈ $471M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd are ¥−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The dividend yield of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The net margin of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is −4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is −27.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
The operating margin of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Revenue at Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is growing +69.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd are growing +130% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540) generate?
The free cash flow of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is −1.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd (600540) carry?
The net debt of Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co Ltd is 4.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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