Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd ¥1.91, price ¥5.88, upside -67.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.47 – ¥7.67 · the ¥5.88 price screens above the ¥1.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. provides passenger road transportation services in China. It constructs and maintains passenger transport, passenger stations, as well as maintains operations; and provides logistics, tourism, car rental, and property management services. The company operates 77 passenger stations, 7,024 vehicles, and 1,350 operating routes.
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Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. provides passenger road transportation services in China. It constructs and maintains passenger transport, passenger stations, as well as maintains operations; and provides logistics, tourism, car rental, and property management services. The company operates 77 passenger stations, 7,024 vehicles, and 1,350 operating routes. It is also involved in road freight transport, warehousing, and postal services. Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd., was formerly known as the state-owned enterprise Jiangxi Long-distance Bus Transport Company. Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) currently trades at ¥5.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.91, implying the stock looks roughly 207.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥5.71 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥5.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.9800, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 16.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7B CNY (≈ $250M) · P/E ratio 117.6 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −68%, 600561 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.91Fair Value ¥1.91Bull ¥1.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0367 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs −19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.6% a year for the price.
Compare Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)117.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600561
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.91 versus a price of ¥5.88, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600561?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is ¥1.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.88.
What is the quality score of 600561?
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.91, about −68% upside versus a price of ¥5.88 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600561 use?
Our models discount Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd that is +18.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd grew -4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (+18.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.69 %: that much free cash flow Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd it is ¥1.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.88. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600561 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.88, fair value ¥1.91, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600561?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.91). For Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd the two are ¥3.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd at about 1.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.88; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.91 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 600561?
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 117.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600561 from its 52-week high?
Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd trades at ¥5.88, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥7.67 and 26% above the low of ¥4.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.88, calculated fair value ¥1.91 (−68%), Quality Score 41/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600561 calculated?
We run Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥5.88. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.91, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 1.7B CNY (≈ $250M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd are ¥0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 117.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The dividend yield of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The net margin of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
The operating margin of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Revenue at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is growing −20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg 0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd are growing +940% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd (600561) carry?
The net debt of Jiangxi Changyun Co Ltd is 1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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