Arcplus Group PLC (600629) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Arcplus Group PLC ¥3.00, price ¥16.37, upside -81.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.08 – ¥40.93 · fair‑value band ¥3.00 – ¥3.40 · the ¥16.37 price screens above the ¥3.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arcplus Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides architectural design and consulting services for urban and rural construction in China and internationally.
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Arcplus Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides architectural design and consulting services for urban and rural construction in China and internationally. The company offers professional technical services, such as engineering design, engineering consulting, engineering survey, engineering testing, and other services related to the construction industry. It is also involved in engineering construction projects, which include planning, construction, water conservancy, municipal administration, landscape architecture, interior decoration, architectural acoustics, and other design consulting services; and engineering, procurement, and construction general contracting services. In addition, the company engages in industrial investment; geotechnical engineering survey and design; building and municipal road consultation; architectural review; project supervision; investment management; building information technology development and services; landscaping projects; business services; and municipal engineering activities. The company was formerly known as East China Construction Group Co., Ltd. Arcplus Group PLC was founded in 1952 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Arcplus Group PLC (600629) currently trades at ¥16.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.00, 81.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥5.97 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥16.37 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥1.06, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.00 (bear) to ¥3.40 (bull), the price of ¥16.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Arcplus Group PLC reported revenue of 7.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 71.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −31.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 18.3B CNY (≈ $2.7B) · P/S ratio 2.66 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin −0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −82%, 600629 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.00Fair Value ¥3.00Bull ¥3.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.1% vs −11.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 779 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−81.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.40× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF24.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arcplus Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600629
Frequently asked questions
Is Arcplus Group PLC (600629) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.00 versus a price of ¥16.37, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600629?
Our model-based fair value for Arcplus Group PLC is ¥3.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.37.
What is the quality score of 600629?
Arcplus Group PLC has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.00, optimistic scenario ¥3.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arcplus Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.00, about −82% upside versus a price of ¥16.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.00, optimistic scenario ¥3.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Arcplus Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arcplus Group PLC pay a dividend?
Arcplus Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arcplus Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +42.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600629 use?
Our models discount Arcplus Group PLC at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arcplus Group PLC that is +42.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arcplus Group PLC (600629) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arcplus Group PLC grew -4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +42.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arcplus Group PLC (600629) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arcplus Group PLC (+42.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.71 %: that much free cash flow Arcplus Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arcplus Group PLC it is ¥3.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥16.37. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arcplus Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600629 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.37, fair value ¥3.00, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600629?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.00). For Arcplus Group PLC the two are ¥13.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arcplus Group PLC worth?
The market values Arcplus Group PLC at about 18.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.37; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600629?
Our models span a range for Arcplus Group PLC: cautious scenario ¥3.00, base ¥3.00, optimistic ¥3.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥16.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arcplus Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600629 from its 52-week high?
Arcplus Group PLC trades at ¥16.37, about 60% below its 52-week high of ¥40.93 and 42% above the low of ¥11.49 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arcplus Group PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arcplus Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥16.37, calculated fair value ¥3.00 (−82%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600629 calculated?
We run Arcplus Group PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arcplus Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥16.37. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.00, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arcplus Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥3.00 to ¥3.40), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Arcplus Group PLC (600629) come from?
Earnings per share at Arcplus Group PLC grew +7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arcplus Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The market capitalisation of Arcplus Group PLC is 18.3B CNY (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arcplus Group PLC is 2.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Earnings per share at Arcplus Group PLC are ¥0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The dividend yield of Arcplus Group PLC is 0.1% (payout 190%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The net margin of Arcplus Group PLC is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arcplus Group PLC is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arcplus Group PLC is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
The operating margin of Arcplus Group PLC is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Revenue at Arcplus Group PLC is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arcplus Group PLC (600629)?
Earnings per share at Arcplus Group PLC are growing −93.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Arcplus Group PLC (600629) hold?
Arcplus Group PLC holds more cash than debt, 2.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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