China Security Co (600654) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 8.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.3100 to ¥0.3200 (+3.2%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +14.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.52 – ¥5.18 · fair‑value band ¥0.2600 – ¥0.4000 · the ¥2.99 price screens above the ¥0.3200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
China Security Co (600654) currently trades at ¥2.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3200, implying the stock looks roughly 89.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Security Co generated revenue of 3.0B CNY at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 12.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 542M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.2600 (bear case) to ¥0.4000 (bull case); at ¥2.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -89%, 600654 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥0.4100) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Security Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides security products and services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Overseas Security, Security System Integration, Security Product Manufacturing and Sales, and Others.
Full company description
China Security Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides security products and services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Overseas Security, Security System Integration, Security Product Manufacturing and Sales, and Others. It offers intelligent security products, including intelligent building alarm system, perimeter prevention and alarm system, and indoor security system; smart all in one card platform, intelligent access control, and intelligent parking lot processing system; and on line monitoring equipment for transmission, power safety supervision operation monitoring, and monitoring equipment for mountain fire. The company also provides security operation services, such as armed escort and safe express services, professional human security services, intelligent central monitoring center, electronic security services, tri-guard automatic intelligent safe, and airport services. In addition, it offers smart city solutions comprising intelligent medicine, transportation, building, campus, and garden, as well as network security. Further, the company is involved in engineering installation; retail trade; investment management; artificial intelligence public data platform; and software sales. Its products and services are used in healthcare, transportation, education, real estate, home automation, and cybersecurity sectors. The company was formerly known as China Security & Fire Co.,Ltd and changed its name to China Security Co., Ltd. in May 2018. China Security Co., Ltd. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Security Co reported revenue of ¥3.1B in FY2025 versus ¥2.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥53.0M in FY2025.
600654 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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