China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A ¥0.37, price ¥3.01, upside -87.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.54 – ¥5.18 · fair‑value band ¥0.3300 – ¥0.4000 · the ¥3.01 price screens above the ¥0.3700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Security Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides security products and services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Overseas Security, Security System Integration, Security Product Manufacturing and Sales, and Others.
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China Security Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides security products and services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Overseas Security, Security System Integration, Security Product Manufacturing and Sales, and Others. It offers intelligent security products, including intelligent building alarm system, perimeter prevention and alarm system, and indoor security system; smart all in one card platform, intelligent access control, and intelligent parking lot processing system; and on line monitoring equipment for transmission, power safety supervision operation monitoring, and monitoring equipment for mountain fire. The company also provides security operation services, such as armed escort and safe express services, professional human security services, intelligent central monitoring center, electronic security services, tri-guard automatic intelligent safe, and airport services. In addition, it offers smart city solutions comprising intelligent medicine, transportation, building, campus, and garden, as well as network security. Further, the company is involved in engineering installation; retail trade; investment management; artificial intelligence public data platform; and software sales. Its products and services are used in healthcare, transportation, education, real estate, home automation, and cybersecurity sectors. The company was formerly known as China Security & Fire Co.,Ltd and changed its name to China Security Co., Ltd. in May 2018. China Security Co., Ltd. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.
Stock analysis
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) currently trades at ¥3.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3700, implying the stock looks roughly 713.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥0.4700 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥3.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.0600, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.3300 (bear) to ¥0.4000 (bull), the price of ¥3.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 53.0M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 100.3 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0300 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −88%, 600654 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0600 to ¥0.6600). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.3300Fair Value ¥0.3700Bull ¥0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0219 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19% vs −22%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +69.7% a year for the price.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600654
Frequently asked questions
Is China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.3700 versus a price of ¥3.01, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600654?
Our model-based fair value for China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is ¥0.3700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.01.
What is the quality score of 600654?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.3700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3300, optimistic scenario ¥0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.3700, about −88% upside versus a price of ¥3.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3300, optimistic scenario ¥0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by +72.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600654 use?
Our models discount China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A that is +72.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +72.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (+72.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.27 %: that much free cash flow China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A it is ¥0.3700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.01. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600654 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.01, fair value ¥0.3700, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600654?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.3700). For China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥2.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A at about 8.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.01; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.3700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600654?
Our models span a range for China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥0.3300, base ¥0.3700, optimistic ¥0.4000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600654?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 100.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.3700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.6, P/S 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600654 from its 52-week high?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥3.01, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥4.68 and 19% above the low of ¥2.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.3700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.01, calculated fair value ¥0.3700 (−88%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600654 calculated?
We run China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.3700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥3.01. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.3700, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) come from?
Earnings per share at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A grew −25.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.2 %, EBIT margin −20.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The market capitalisation of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 1.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Earnings per share at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A are ¥0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 100.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The dividend yield of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 0.2% (payout 16.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The net margin of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
The operating margin of China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Revenue at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A is growing −12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654)?
Earnings per share at China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A are growing +233% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A (600654) hold?
China Security & Fire Co Ltd Class A holds more cash than debt, 542M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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