Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company (600815) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 5.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥0.2500 to ¥1.68 (+572.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +29.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.84 – ¥4.93 · fair‑value band ¥1.55 – ¥1.82 · the ¥3.28 price screens above the ¥1.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company (600815) currently trades at ¥3.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.68, implying the stock looks roughly 48.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company generated revenue of 746M CNY at a net margin of -11.0%. Revenue grew 55.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 294M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.55 (bear case) to ¥1.82 (bull case); at ¥3.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -49%, 600815 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥0.5500) versus Multiples (¥0.1700). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited research, develops, produces, and sells engineering machinery products and core components in China, Southeast and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa.
Full company description
Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited research, develops, produces, and sells engineering machinery products and core components in China, Southeast and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers wheel, backhoe, excavators, and skid steel loaders; downhole machines; tracked and wheeled excavators; and steel grabbers. It also offers road machineries, including motor graders, pneumatic rollers, walk behind vibratory rollers, small tandem vibratory rollers, bulldozers, c-series, and hydraulic vibratory rollers; industrial machinery, such as diesel and electric forklift trucks, electric pallet stackers, and side loading forklifts; environmental protection machines comprising waste compactors and waste compression transfer stations; and tunneling machineries, which includes pipe jacking, irregular, TBM hard rock tunnel boring, slurry balance, earth pressure balance, composite shield tunneling machines. In addition, the company engages in the provision of equipment rental and guarantee services and value-added services; and building construction business. Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited was founded in 1951 and is based in Xiamen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company reported revenue of ¥672M in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound −18.9%/yr. Reported net income was −¥73.5M in FY2025.
600815 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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