Watch Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd stock ¥1.67, price ¥3.13, upside -46.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE000000F97

Thin data Oct 26, 2026

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd

600815 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt

Quality 41/100

Fair value ¥1.67 · Strongly overvalued (−46.6%)

Weak Growth (revenue 5y −18.9 %/yr in CNY)

Loss-making · -17.8% net margin (TTM)

Negative free cash flow

Trails peers (1/11)

Narrow moat 9/100

Thin data

26 models, one by oneBear ¥1.53 to bull ¥1.80 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 41/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.84 – ¥4.93 · fair‑value band ¥1.53 – ¥1.80 · the ¥3.13 price screens above the ¥1.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

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Company profile

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited research, develops, produces, and sells engineering machinery products and core components in China, Southeast and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa.

Show moreShow less

The company offers wheel, backhoe, excavators, and skid steel loaders; downhole machines; tracked and wheeled excavators; and steel grabbers.

It also offers road machineries, including motor graders, pneumatic rollers, walk behind vibratory rollers, small tandem vibratory rollers, bulldozers, c-series, and hydraulic vibratory rollers; industrial machinery, such as diesel and electric forklift trucks, electric pallet stackers, and side loading forklifts; environmental protection machines comprising waste compactors and waste compression transfer stations; and tunneling machineries, which includes pipe jacking, irregular, TBM hard rock tunnel boring, slurry balance, earth pressure balance, composite shield tunneling machines.

In addition, the company engages in the provision of equipment rental and guarantee services and value-added services; and building construction business. Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited was founded in 1951 and is based in Xiamen, China.

Stock analysis

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815) currently trades at ¥3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.67, 46.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥1.53 (bear) to ¥1.80 (bull), the price of ¥3.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 672M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.9%/yr. Reported net income was −73.5M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 5.6B CNY (≈ $834M) Small · P/S ratio 9.44 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0700 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −17.8% · Return on equity −7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin −33.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, 600815 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥1.53 Fair Value ¥1.67 Bull ¥1.80

Price ¥3.13 · Upside -46.6%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

EV/EBITDA ¥0.2300 ¥0.2500 ¥0.2700 67

NCAV (Graham) ¥0.2300 ¥0.3600 ¥0.4400 55

All 2 models by family

Multiples

EV/EBITDA ¥0.2300 ¥0.2500 ¥0.2700 67

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥0.2300 ¥0.3600 ¥0.4400 55

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 14

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 33

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 79

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 67

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 50

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Momentum 54

Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 39

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 52

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−1.7%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−12.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−18.9%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.1% a year

Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+0.3%

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

2.9% (2020) → −7.7% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

600815 screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 151 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −46.6% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −3.1% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (12 months) −17.8% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (12 months) −33.9% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −16.1% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.82× · Priciest 25%

P/S (12 months) 7.74× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 50

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36

HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 93

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425	¥7.02	¥14.52	+107%	vs 600815
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808	HK$32.54	HK$57.75	+77%	vs 600815
Daimler Truck Holding DTG	€40.05	€49.77	+24%	vs 600815
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031	¥17.69	¥20.84	+18%	vs 600815
PACCAR Inc PCAR	$106.96	$117.66	+10%	vs 600815
Metso Oyj METSO	€16.07	€17.68	+10%	vs 600815
Traton SE 8TRA	€32.60	€32.85	+1%	vs 600815
CNH Industrial N.V CNH	$11.49	$8.65	−25%	vs 600815
Caterpillar Inc CAT	$704.05	$308.45	−56%	vs 600815
Deere & Company DE	$643.62	$263.46	−59%	vs 600815

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Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥1.67 −47%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600815" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">¥1.67</b> <span style="color:var(--red);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−47%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600815

Frequently asked questions

Is Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.67 versus a price of ¥3.13, about −47% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 600815?

Our model-based fair value for Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is ¥1.67 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.13.

What is the quality score of 600815?

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.67 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.53, optimistic scenario ¥1.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥1.67, about −47% upside versus a price of ¥3.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.53, optimistic scenario ¥1.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 718M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).

Does Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd it is ¥1.67 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥3.13. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 26, 2026, 600815 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.13, fair value ¥1.67, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 600815?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.67). For Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd the two are ¥1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd worth?

The market values Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd at about 5.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.13; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.67 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600815?

Our models span a range for Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.53, base ¥1.67, optimistic ¥1.80 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥3.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Balance-sheet figures for Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −7.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 600815 from its 52-week high?

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd trades at ¥3.13, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥4.93 and 31% above the low of ¥2.39 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.67 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥3.13, calculated fair value ¥1.67 (−47%), Quality Score 41/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 600815 calculated?

We run Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥3.13. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.67, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The market capitalisation of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is 5.6B CNY (≈ $834M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is 9.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Earnings per share at Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd are ¥−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The dividend yield of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The net margin of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is −17.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

The operating margin of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is −33.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Revenue at Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is growing −16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815)?

Earnings per share at Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd are growing −55.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815) generate?

The free cash flow of Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd is −373M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd (600815) hold?

Xiamen XGMA Machinery Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 294M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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