First Tractor Company (601038) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 14.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥11.92 to ¥10.76 (−9.7%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥8.24 (bear) to ¥13.77 (bull), base ¥10.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.50 – ¥19.69 · fair‑value band ¥8.24 – ¥13.77 · the ¥13.20 price screens above the ¥10.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
First Tractor Company (601038) currently trades at ¥13.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.76, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Tractor Company generated revenue of 10.9B CNY at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.24 (bear case) to ¥13.77 (bull case); at ¥13.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -18%, 601038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.17) versus Asset-Based (¥4.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Tractor Company Limited, engages in the production, manufacture, and sale of agricultural machinery and power machinery. It offers medium and large-sized wheeled and crawler tractors; transmission series tractors; power shuttle series tractors; shift series tractors; autonomous tractors; and hybrid power tractors.
Full company description
First Tractor Company Limited, engages in the production, manufacture, and sale of agricultural machinery and power machinery. It offers medium and large-sized wheeled and crawler tractors; transmission series tractors; power shuttle series tractors; shift series tractors; autonomous tractors; and hybrid power tractors. The company also provides off-road diesel engines, such as tractors and harvesters, engineering machinery, ships, generator sets, and others; and component products, such as castings and forgings, gear transmission components, covers, offroad axles, transmissions, and cabs/coverings of agricultural machinery products. First Tractor Company Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in Luoyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Tractor Company reported revenue of ¥10.8B in FY2025 versus ¥9.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥812M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
601038 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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