Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) ¥2.32, price ¥13.33, upside -82.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.12 – ¥18.16 · fair‑value band ¥1.81 – ¥2.90 · the ¥13.33 price screens above the ¥2.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade (Group) Co., Ltd. engages in the chain retail business in China.
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Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade (Group) Co., Ltd. engages in the chain retail business in China. The company operates department stores under the Dongfanghong Plaza Store, Baiyin World Trade Center Store, Ningxia Shopping Plaza Store, Zhangye Shopping Plaza Store, Xining Guofang Department Store, Guofang G99 Shopping Center, and Jinchang Guofang Department Store; supermarkets under the Zongchao Plaza Store, Zongchao Xihuayuan Store, Zongchao Qilihe Store, and Zongchao Store Gaolan store names; and electrical appliance stores under the Guofang Electric Appliances brand. It also provides property leasing services. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Lanzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) currently trades at ¥13.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.32, 82.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.27 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥13.33 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.8800, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.81 (bear) to ¥2.90 (bull), the price of ¥13.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) reported revenue of 800M CNY in FY2025 versus 968M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 70.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.9B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 88.9 · P/S ratio 7.80 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1500 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −83%, 601086 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.81Fair Value ¥2.32Bull ¥2.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0378 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.2% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.0% vs −6.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.6% a year for the price.
Compare Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.0% · Above median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)11.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)88.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)10.69× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF157.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA68.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.32 versus a price of ¥13.33, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601086?
Our model-based fair value for Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is ¥2.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.33.
What is the quality score of 601086?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.81, optimistic scenario ¥2.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.32, about −83% upside versus a price of ¥13.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.81, optimistic scenario ¥2.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 830M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) pay a dividend?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) would have to grow free cash flow by +51.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601086 use?
Our models discount Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) that is +51.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) grew -4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +51.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (+51.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.63 %: that much free cash flow Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) it is ¥2.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥13.33. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 601086 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.33, fair value ¥2.32, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601086?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.32). For Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) the two are ¥11.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) worth?
The market values Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) at about 8.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.33; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601086?
Our models span a range for Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp): cautious scenario ¥1.81, base ¥2.32, optimistic ¥2.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥13.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601086?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 88.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 10.7, EV/EBITDA 68.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601086 from its 52-week high?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) trades at ¥13.33, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥18.16 and 102% above the low of ¥6.60 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥13.33, calculated fair value ¥2.32 (−83%), Quality Score 56/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601086 calculated?
We run Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥13.33. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.32, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) come from?
Earnings per share at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) grew −5.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −16.2 %, EBIT margin +12.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp)
How large is the market capitalisation of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The market capitalisation of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 8.9B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 7.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) are ¥0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 88.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The dividend yield of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 0.8% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The net margin of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
The operating margin of Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Revenue at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) (601086) hold?
Gansu Guofang Gongmao(Grp) holds more cash than debt, 574M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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