China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd ¥17.03, price ¥3.40, upside +400.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.31 – ¥6.39 · fair‑value band ¥9.39 – ¥28.01 · the ¥3.40 price screens below the ¥17.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the civil aviation business in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Aviation Operations and Other segments.
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China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the civil aviation business in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Aviation Operations and Other segments. The company is involved in air passenger, cargo, mail and baggage transportation and related services; general aviation; aircraft maintenance; aircraft equipment manufacturing and maintenance; agency business for domestic and foreign airlines; import and export of industry-related materials, equipment and technology; tourism services; hotel business; and other businesses related to air transportation. It also provides Engineering services; aircraft training; research and development services for technologies and products in the aviation field; investment, leasing, and consulting services; e-commerce and ticketing agency; value-added telecommunications; and produces and sells of aviation gifts and other general merchandise. The company operated a fleet of 826 aircraft. China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) currently trades at ¥3.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.03, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥15.20 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥3.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.05, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥9.39 (bear) to ¥28.01 (bull), the price of ¥3.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd reported revenue of 140B CNY in FY2025 versus 67.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 75.1B CNY (≈ $11.2B) · P/S ratio 0.56 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8% · Operating margin 5.6% · Revenue (TTM) 144B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 401%, 600115 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥9.39Fair Value ¥17.03Bull ¥28.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.7% (2020) → 1.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.8% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.03 versus a price of ¥3.40, about +401% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600115?
Our model-based fair value for China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is ¥17.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.40.
What is the quality score of 600115?
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.39, optimistic scenario ¥28.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.03, about +401% upside versus a price of ¥3.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.39, optimistic scenario ¥28.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 144B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600115 use?
Our models discount China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd that is -8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd grew +19.0 % a year. The price currently implies -8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (-8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.83 %: that much free cash flow China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd it is ¥17.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥3.40. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 600115 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥3.40, fair value ¥17.03, a gap of about +401% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600115?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.03). For China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd the two are ¥13.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd worth?
The market values China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd at about 75.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.40; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600115?
Our models span a range for China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.39, base ¥17.03, optimistic ¥28.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥3.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 600115?
The PEG ratio of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 2.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 1.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600115 from its 52-week high?
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd trades at ¥3.40, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥6.39 and 3% above the low of ¥3.31 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥3.40, calculated fair value ¥17.03 (+401%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600115 calculated?
We run China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥3.40. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.03, about +401% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥9.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (¥9.39 to ¥28.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The market capitalisation of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 75.1B CNY (≈ $11.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The dividend yield of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The net margin of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
The operating margin of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
Revenue at China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115)?
Earnings per share at China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd are growing +16.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (600115) carry?
The net debt of China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd is 67.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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