Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥1.54 to ¥3.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.45 – ¥5.42 · fair‑value band ¥1.54 – ¥3.11 · the ¥2.83 price screens above the ¥2.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188) currently trades at ¥2.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.45, implying the stock looks roughly 13.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Heilongjiang Transport Development Co generated revenue of 779M CNY at a net margin of 19.8%. Revenue grew 33.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at 230M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.54 (bear case) to ¥3.11 (bull case); at ¥2.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -13%, 601188 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.49) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of toll roads in China. The company is involved in the toll collection, operation management, and daily maintenance of the Harbin-Daqing Expressway.
Full company description
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of toll roads in China. The company is involved in the toll collection, operation management, and daily maintenance of the Harbin-Daqing Expressway. It also engages in road maintenance; sales of petroleum, cement, solar thermal utilization, solar thermal power generation, and charging pile products; investment activities; advertising; operation of road freight transport stations; motor vehicle charging sales; leasing services; real estate development and operation; and new material technology research and development. In addition, the company manufactures graphite and carbon products; provides parking services; manufactures and sells photovoltaic equipment and components; and provides information technology consulting, energy management, catering management, solar power generation technology, and engineering management services. Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co reported revenue of ¥770M in FY2025 versus ¥537M in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥168M in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.88 | ¥9.16 | -7% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥11.86 | ¥15.32 | +29% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.86 | ¥8.68 | -20% |
| Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 | 43.00 MXN | 43.57 MXN | +1% |
| Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA | 281.25 MXN | 945.00 MXN | +236% |
| Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 | R$14.82 | R$29.18 | +97% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.16 | HK$18.35 | +198% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.31 | ¥14.90 | -9% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥14.33 | ¥17.93 | +25% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.35 | ¥7.70 | -8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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