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Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.7B CNY

HT Heilongjiang Transport Development Co 601188 · SHG
Price¥2.83
Fair Value¥2.45
Upside-13.4%
Quality69/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 19.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.82% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.54 – ¥3.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +1.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥1.54 to ¥3.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥5.42 ¥2.45 Fair Value ¥2.45 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.45 – ¥5.42 · fair‑value band ¥1.54 – ¥3.11 · the ¥2.83 price screens above the ¥2.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

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Analysis

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188) currently trades at ¥2.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.45, implying the stock looks roughly 13.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Heilongjiang Transport Development Co generated revenue of 779M CNY at a net margin of 19.8%. Revenue grew 33.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at 230M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.54 (bear case) to ¥3.11 (bull case); at ¥2.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -13%, 601188 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.43 ¥2.34 ¥3.72 80
Residual Income ¥2.52 ¥2.51 ¥2.23 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.8500 ¥1.37 ¥2.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.42 ¥2.36 ¥3.81 38
Owner Earnings ¥2.30 ¥3.77 ¥6.02 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.8500 ¥1.36 ¥1.99 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.06 ¥3.69 ¥5.64 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥1.56 ¥2.73 ¥4.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥1.02 ¥1.54 ¥2.23 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥1.81 ¥3.15 ¥5.03 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥1.49 ¥2.49 ¥3.76 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.8800 ¥3.14 ¥4.23 54
Lynch FV ¥0.7400 ¥1.06 ¥1.37 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.7400 ¥1.06 ¥1.37 46
EPV ¥1.04 ¥1.23 ¥1.40 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.9300 ¥1.86 ¥2.81 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.9300 ¥1.60 ¥1.96 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.03 ¥2.70 ¥3.38 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.8900 ¥1.18 ¥1.48 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.64 ¥2.19 ¥2.74 55
EV/EBIT ¥1.79 ¥2.45 ¥3.11 53
EV/EBITDA ¥2.70 ¥3.66 ¥4.63 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.5700 ¥0.8900 ¥1.20 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.71 ¥2.30 ¥3.43 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.43 ¥2.34 ¥3.72 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.8500 ¥1.37 ¥2.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.52 ¥2.51 ¥2.23 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.04 ¥1.23 ¥1.40 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥1.41 ¥2.02 ¥2.63 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.49) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 779M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +33.3%
Net margin 19.8%
Return on equity 3.3%
Free cash flow 185M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 25.3
More key figures
Operating margin 26.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200
Dividend yield 1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -14.6%
Net debt 230M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of toll roads in China. The company is involved in the toll collection, operation management, and daily maintenance of the Harbin-Daqing Expressway.

Full company description

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of toll roads in China. The company is involved in the toll collection, operation management, and daily maintenance of the Harbin-Daqing Expressway. It also engages in road maintenance; sales of petroleum, cement, solar thermal utilization, solar thermal power generation, and charging pile products; investment activities; advertising; operation of road freight transport stations; motor vehicle charging sales; leasing services; real estate development and operation; and new material technology research and development. In addition, the company manufactures graphite and carbon products; provides parking services; manufactures and sells photovoltaic equipment and components; and provides information technology consulting, energy management, catering management, solar power generation technology, and engineering management services. Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co reported revenue of ¥770M in FY2025 versus ¥537M in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥168M in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
770M CNY
Latest YoY
−9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+21.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y)
+6.1%
Revenue +9.5%/yr
FY21 ¥537M
FY22 ¥435M
FY23 ¥662M
FY24 ¥847M
FY25 ¥770M
Net income +0.0%/yr
FY21 ¥168M
FY22 ¥123M
FY23 ¥128M
FY24 ¥152M
FY25 ¥168M

601188 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heilongjiang Transport Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601188

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −13% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.83× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.74× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 15 · sector 54
FUTURE 32 · sector 13
PAST 13 · sector 25
HEALTH 91 · sector 69
DIVIDEND 36 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.45 versus a price of ¥2.83, about −13% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601188?
Our model-based fair value for Heilongjiang Transport Development Co is ¥2.45 (as of Aug 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥2.83.
What is the quality score of 601188?
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Heilongjiang Transport Development Co (601188)?
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 779M CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601188?
The net profit margin of Heilongjiang Transport Development Co is about 19.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 19.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Heilongjiang Transport Development Co pay a dividend?
Heilongjiang Transport Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 10, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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