Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd (601388) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 7.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥1.17 to ¥1.13 (−3.4%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +16.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.7900 to ¥1.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.84 – ¥7.07 · fair‑value band ¥0.7900 – ¥1.57 · the ¥3.27 price screens above the ¥1.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd (601388) currently trades at ¥3.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 65.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd generated revenue of 7.7B CNY at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at 395M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.7900 (bear case) to ¥1.57 (bull case); at ¥3.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -65%, 601388 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.43) versus Growth DCF (¥0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd. engages in aluminum alloy recycling business in Asia and the United States. The company produces and sells aluminum alloy ingots for use in automotive, electrical appliances, machinery, construction, power, transportation, packaging, and hardware.
Full company description
Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd. engages in aluminum alloy recycling business in Asia and the United States. The company produces and sells aluminum alloy ingots for use in automotive, electrical appliances, machinery, construction, power, transportation, packaging, and hardware. It also offers ferrous metals, as well as engages in import and export trade, information consulting, external leasing, and other businesses. It recycles all kinds of industrial and household waste, scrapped cars, and scrapped products. Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd. was formerly known as Ye Chiu Metal Taicang Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd. in 2009. Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd. was founded in 1984 and is based in Taicang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd reported revenue of ¥7.6B in FY2025 versus ¥8.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥170M in FY2025, compounding −33.2%/yr from FY2021.
601388 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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