Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd ¥3.19, price ¥8.95, upside -64.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.02 – ¥13.66 · fair‑value band ¥2.02 – ¥3.19 · the ¥8.95 price screens above the ¥3.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of wood and paper packaging products in China. The company is also involved in the wholesale and retail of paper packaging and wood packaging products, wood, and plastic products; and the provision of packaging services.
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Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of wood and paper packaging products in China. The company is also involved in the wholesale and retail of paper packaging and wood packaging products, wood, and plastic products; and the provision of packaging services. Its products are used in new energy vehicles, smart devices, electronics and electrical, biomedicine, home appliances, and electromechanical processing. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Xinliantong Packacing Materials Company and changed its name to Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. in June 2011. Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) currently trades at ¥8.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.19, implying the stock looks roughly 180.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥5.06 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥8.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.9300, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥2.02 (bear) to ¥3.19 (bull), the price of ¥8.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd reported revenue of 980M CNY in FY2025 versus 729M CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was 59.5M CNY in FY2025, compounding +30.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8B CNY (≈ $267M) · P/E ratio 29.8 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3000 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −64%, 603022 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.02Fair Value ¥3.19Bull ¥3.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1468 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Compare Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.81× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)19· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603022
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.19 versus a price of ¥8.95, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603022?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is ¥3.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.95.
What is the quality score of 603022?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.02, optimistic scenario ¥3.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.19, about −64% upside versus a price of ¥8.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.02, optimistic scenario ¥3.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 987M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd it is ¥3.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥8.95. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603022 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.95, fair value ¥3.19, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603022?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.19). For Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd the two are ¥5.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd at about 1.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.95; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603022?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.02, base ¥3.19, optimistic ¥3.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥8.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603022?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 16.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603022 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd trades at ¥8.95, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥11.69 and 23% above the low of ¥7.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥8.95, calculated fair value ¥3.19 (−64%), Quality Score 56/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603022 calculated?
We run Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥8.95. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.19, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd grew −2.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 1.8B CNY (≈ $267M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd are ¥0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 1.1% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The net margin of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022)?
Revenue at Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd is −32.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd (603022) hold?
Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 93.1M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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