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Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd stock ¥57.46, price ¥39.59, upside +45.1%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical CN · ISIN CNE1000070B1

ZR Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd logo Some data Nov 2, 2026

Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd

603049 · SHG
Speculative

The stock costs 31% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value ¥57.46 · Undervalued (31%)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Costs just 8.2 times its yearly profit.
Quality 40/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +12.1 %/yr in CNY)
Thin margins · 9.2% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat 54/100 · thin data
Some data
Negative free cash flow
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥59.02 ¥37.01 Fair Value ¥57.46 Jun 2025 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

17‑month range ¥37.01 – ¥59.02 · fair‑value band ¥40.23 – ¥74.70 · the ¥39.59 price screens below the ¥57.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of tire products in China.

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The company offers all-steel tires used in heavy-duty trucks, long-distance passenger vehicles, and engineering machinery vehicle; semi-steel tires mainly used in passenger cars such as sedans, SUVs, and commercial vehicles; bias tires, including agricultural and pneumatic tires for industrial vehicles; and solid tires for industrial vehicle.

It also provides agricultural tires, industrial vehicle pneumatic tires, Industrial vehicle solid tires, suitable for agricultural machinery, loading Machine, mining dump truck, small excavator, and port machinery vehicle; and motorcycle tires, bicycle tires, and rickshaw tires, which are suitable for two-wheeled vehicles, such as motorcycles, electric vehicles, and bicycles.

The company sells its products under the CHAOYANG, GOODYNKEN, WEISHI, QIANNUO, YADU, GOODRIDE, CHAOYANG. and TRAZANO brands. It also exports its products to Europe, America, Africa, Oceania, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1958 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049) currently trades at ¥39.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥57.46, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥93.51 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥39.59 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥17.95, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥40.23 (bear) to ¥74.70 (bull), the price of ¥39.59 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 45.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 34.6B CNY (≈ $5.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) ¥4.84 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 45%, 603049 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥40.23 Fair Value ¥57.46 Bull ¥74.70
Price ¥39.59 · Upside +45.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥4.14 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV ¥39.26 ¥44.59 ¥49.08 71
Residual Income ¥28.34 ¥36.97 ¥55.59 71
ROIC Compounder ¥42.76 ¥54.76 ¥69.96 69
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥32.25 ¥147.00 ¥201.69 61
Lynch FV ¥38.51 ¥55.02 ¥71.52 58
PEG = 1.0 ¥38.51 ¥55.02 ¥71.52 55
EPV ¥39.26 ¥44.59 ¥49.08 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥13.49 ¥25.19 ¥35.78 64
DDM Multi-Stage ¥13.49 ¥22.57 ¥26.80 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥74.70 ¥99.60 ¥124.50 63
P/S Multiple ¥60.47 ¥80.63 ¥100.78 58
P/B Multiple ¥90.42 ¥120.56 ¥150.71 55
EV/EBIT ¥64.73 ¥88.41 ¥112.09 66
EV/EBITDA ¥72.39 ¥98.61 ¥124.84 67
EV/Revenue ¥44.40 ¥66.12 ¥87.85 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥13.40 ¥17.95 ¥26.79 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥28.34 ¥36.97 ¥55.59 71
ROIC Compounder ¥42.76 ¥54.76 ¥69.96 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥62.09 ¥88.69 ¥115.30 65

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 51
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 68
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 37
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 73
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 19
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 10
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 23
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 11%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +45.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 17.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 9.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 10.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 8.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.40× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.74× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)93 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)48 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)71 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)82 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 349,000 KRW 534,994 KRW +53% vs 603049
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Knorr-Bremse AG KBX €94.45 €72.88 −23% vs 603049
AutoZone, Inc AZO $3,216 $2,468 −23% vs 603049
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥55.92 ¥40.74 −27% vs 603049
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥44.71 ¥32.24 −28% vs 603049
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹158.55 ₹96.06 −39% vs 603049
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $89.89 $48.66 −46% vs 603049
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹50,700 ₹25,168 −50% vs 603049

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Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603049

Frequently asked questions

Is Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥57.46 versus a price of ¥39.59, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603049?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is ¥57.46 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥39.59.
What is the quality score of 603049?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥57.46 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥40.23, optimistic scenario ¥74.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥57.46, about +45% upside versus a price of ¥39.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥40.23, optimistic scenario ¥74.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 46.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 4.1%.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd it is ¥57.46 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of ¥39.59. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 603049 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥39.59, fair value ¥57.46, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603049?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥39.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥57.46). For Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd the two are ¥17.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd at about 34.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is ¥39.59; our models calculate a fair value of ¥57.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603049?
Our models span a range for Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥40.23, base ¥57.46, optimistic ¥74.70 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price ¥39.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603049?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥57.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 17.7%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603049 from its 52-week high?
Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd trades at ¥39.59, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥59.02 and 7% above the low of ¥37.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥57.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price ¥39.59, calculated fair value ¥57.46 (+45%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603049 calculated?
We run Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥57.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥39.59. Our model-based fair value is ¥57.46, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range (¥40.23 to ¥74.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The market capitalisation of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 34.6B CNY (≈ $5.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Earnings per share at Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd are ¥4.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The dividend yield of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 4.1% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The net margin of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
The operating margin of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Revenue at Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049)?
Earnings per share at Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd are growing −2.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049) generate?
The free cash flow of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is −1.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd (603049) carry?
The net debt of Zhongce Rubber Group Co Ltd is 5.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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