Changbai Mountain Tourism Co (603099) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 10.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +10.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥5.87 to ¥13.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.96 – ¥60.67 · fair‑value band ¥5.87 – ¥13.06 · the ¥38.91 price screens above the ¥10.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Changbai Mountain Tourism Co (603099) currently trades at ¥38.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.45, implying the stock looks roughly 73.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Changbai Mountain Tourism Co generated revenue of 815M CNY at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 21.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 341M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.87 (bear case) to ¥13.06 (bull case); at ¥38.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -73%, 603099 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥11.71) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. operates in the tourism industry in China. The company engages in tourist passenger transportation, hot spring development, hotel and travel agency management, scenic spot management, transportation operation, vacation services, business management consulting and operation, product planning and marketing, and other …
Full company description
Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. operates in the tourism industry in China. The company engages in tourist passenger transportation, hot spring development, hotel and travel agency management, scenic spot management, transportation operation, vacation services, business management consulting and operation, product planning and marketing, and other activities. Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. is based in Changbai, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of Jilin Changbai Mountain Development and Construction (Group) Co.,Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Changbai Mountain Tourism Co reported revenue of ¥786M in FY2025 versus ¥193M in FY2021, a compound +42.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥129M in FY2025.
603099 screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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