Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd HK$22.43, price HK$16.98, upside +32.1%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range HK$16.60 – HK$26.56 · fair‑value band HK$16.82 – HK$28.04 · the HK$16.98 price screens below the HK$22.43 fair value. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of construction machinery in Chinese mainland and internationally. It operates through six segments: Concrete Machinery, Excavating Machinery, Hoisting Machinery, Piling Machinery, Road Machinery, and Financial Services.
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Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of construction machinery in Chinese mainland and internationally. It operates through six segments: Concrete Machinery, Excavating Machinery, Hoisting Machinery, Piling Machinery, Road Machinery, and Financial Services. The company offers concrete pump trucks, concrete delivery pumps, and wall grabs; truck mounted concrete, trailer, and line pump, as well as placing boom, truck mixer, and batching plant; and excavator, such as mini, small, medium, large, long-reach, and wheel excavators. It also provides truck, all-terrain, rough-terrain, truck-mounted, crawler, tower, and loader cranes; roller, motor grader, paver, milling machine, and asphalt batching plant machineries; and dump truck. In addition, the company offers rotary drilling rig, hydraulic grab, and trench cutter; water tower, foam, aerial platform, and water mist fire trucks; and construction machinery product loans, finance lease, and interbank lending and borrowing among financial institutions. Further, it provides maintenance services; and MySANY, a mobile app for SANY Group customers. Additionally, the company manufactures and sells pile drivers. Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) currently trades at HK$16.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$22.43, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$30.05 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$16.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.52, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$16.82 (bear) to HK$28.04 (bull), the price of HK$16.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd reported revenue of 89.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 107B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 8.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$173B (≈ $22.1B) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 1.59 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7670 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 32%, 6031 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$16.82Fair Value HK$22.43Bull HK$28.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2095 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%
2025 sits 71% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.6% a year for the price and +9.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 144 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+19.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6031
Frequently asked questions
Is Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$22.43 versus a price of HK$16.98, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6031?
Our model-based fair value for Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is HK$22.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$16.98.
What is the quality score of 6031?
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$22.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$16.82, optimistic scenario HK$28.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$22.43, about +32% upside versus a price of HK$16.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$16.82, optimistic scenario HK$28.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 92.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd pay a dividend?
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -4.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6031 use?
Our models discount Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd that is -11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd grew -4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (-11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.89 %: that much free cash flow Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd it is HK$22.43 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$16.98. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 6031 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$16.98, fair value HK$22.43, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6031?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$16.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$22.43). For Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd the two are HK$5.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd worth?
The market values Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd at about HK$173B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$16.98; our models calculate a fair value of HK$22.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6031?
Our models span a range for Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd: cautious scenario HK$16.82, base HK$22.43, optimistic HK$28.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$16.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6031?
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$22.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6031 from its 52-week high?
Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd trades at HK$16.98, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$26.56 and 2% above the low of HK$16.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$22.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$16.98, calculated fair value HK$22.43 (+32%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6031 calculated?
We run Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$22.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$16.98. Our model-based fair value is HK$22.43, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd right now?
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The market capitalisation of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is HK$173B (≈ $22.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 1.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Earnings per share at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd are HK$0.7670 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The dividend yield of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 2.9% (payout 63.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The net margin of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 9.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
The operating margin of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Revenue at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031)?
Earnings per share at Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd are growing −7.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (6031) carry?
The net debt of Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd is 634M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026