Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co (603136) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price +6.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥5.82 (bear) to ¥9.70 (bull), base ¥7.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.31 – ¥20.95 · fair‑value band ¥5.82 – ¥9.70 · the ¥9.13 price screens above the ¥7.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co (603136) currently trades at ¥9.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.76, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co generated revenue of 503M CNY at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue declined 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 476M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.82 (bear case) to ¥9.70 (bull case); at ¥9.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -15%, 603136 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.72) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.40). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the tourism development and operation business in China. The company owns tourist attractions; and operates hotels and resorts.
Full company description
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the tourism development and operation business in China. The company owns tourist attractions; and operates hotels and resorts. It is also involved in catering and accommodation; tourism and recuperation services; agriculture activities; hot spring bath business; cableway transportation; and provision of business training. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Liyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co reported revenue of ¥508M in FY2025 versus ¥419M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥95.3M in FY2025, compounding +16.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
603136 screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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