Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co Ltd (603178) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 4.0B CNY (≈ $601M) · ISIN CNE100002Y58
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from ¥1.26 to ¥8.47 (+572.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +9.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 95% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (¥5.38 to ¥11.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.96 – ¥51.80 · fair‑value band ¥5.38 – ¥11.56 · the ¥16.48 price screens above the ¥8.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co Ltd (603178) currently trades at ¥16.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.47, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co Ltd generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of -9.8%. Revenue declined 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -13.4%. Net debt stands at 63.8M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.38 (bear case) to ¥11.56 (bull case); at ¥16.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at -49%, 603178 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.23) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of automotive powertrain components in China and internationally.
Full company description
Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of automotive powertrain components in China and internationally. The company's products include engine mechanical, transmission, and new energy vehicle transmission and all-in-one electric drive system electronic oil pumps; electronic and mechanical, and heavy-duty silicone oil clutch water pumps; cast camshafts, forged camshafts, and assembled camshafts; and transmission core components. It also provides system integration and engineering services. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Ningbo, China. Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Ningbo Shenglong Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.7B in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥211M in FY2025.
603178 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $191.84 | $247.83 | +29% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.80 | €167.67 | -53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.33 | $52.69 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.90 | $11.51 | -17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €45.60 | €106.16 | +133% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | -61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €72.42 | €248.34 | +243% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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