Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guizhou Transp Planning ¥2.52, price ¥10.89, upside -76.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.39 – ¥15.56 · fair‑value band ¥2.50 – ¥2.54 · the ¥10.89 price screens above the ¥2.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guizhou Transportation Planning Survey&Design Academe Co.,Ltd. engages in the engineering consulting and contracting business in China and internationally.
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Guizhou Transportation Planning Survey&Design Academe Co.,Ltd. engages in the engineering consulting and contracting business in China and internationally. It engages in planning, surveying, design, consulting, inspection and testing, supervision, construction, and general contracting services in the fields of highways, construction, municipal, water transport, smart, engineering survey field, resources and environment, testing and inspection field, engineering construction field, engineering supervision field, investment and financing and mergers and acquisitions, and overseas projects. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Guiyang, China.
Stock analysis
Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) currently trades at ¥10.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.52, implying the stock looks roughly 332.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.14 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥10.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.14, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥2.50 (bear) to ¥2.54 (bull), the price of ¥10.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Guizhou Transp Planning reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was −386M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.3B CNY (≈ $498M) · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.25 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin −28.8% · Return on equity −13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin −5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −77%, 603458 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.50Fair Value ¥2.52Bull ¥2.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
21.7% (2020) → 0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price.
Compare Guizhou Transp Planning with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−30% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−24% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.39× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF3.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.52 versus a price of ¥10.89, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603458?
Our model-based fair value for Guizhou Transp Planning is ¥2.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.89.
What is the quality score of 603458?
Guizhou Transp Planning has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.50, optimistic scenario ¥2.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guizhou Transp Planning stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.52, about −77% upside versus a price of ¥10.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.50, optimistic scenario ¥2.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Guizhou Transp Planning reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guizhou Transp Planning pay a dividend?
Guizhou Transp Planning currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guizhou Transp Planning would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603458 use?
Our models discount Guizhou Transp Planning at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guizhou Transp Planning that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guizhou Transp Planning grew -13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guizhou Transp Planning (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.64 %: that much free cash flow Guizhou Transp Planning produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guizhou Transp Planning it is ¥2.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥10.89. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guizhou Transp Planning stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603458 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.89, fair value ¥2.52, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603458?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.52). For Guizhou Transp Planning the two are ¥8.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guizhou Transp Planning worth?
The market values Guizhou Transp Planning at about 3.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.89; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603458?
Our models span a range for Guizhou Transp Planning: cautious scenario ¥2.50, base ¥2.52, optimistic ¥2.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥10.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guizhou Transp Planning (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −13.9%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603458 from its 52-week high?
Guizhou Transp Planning trades at ¥10.89, about 30% below its 52-week high of ¥15.56 and 58% above the low of ¥6.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guizhou Transp Planning?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guizhou Transp Planning stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥10.89, calculated fair value ¥2.52 (−77%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603458 calculated?
We run Guizhou Transp Planning through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guizhou Transp Planning itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥10.89. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.52, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guizhou Transp Planning right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥2.50 to ¥2.54), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) come from?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Transp Planning grew −6.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guizhou Transp Planning
How large is the market capitalisation of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The market capitalisation of Guizhou Transp Planning is 3.3B CNY (≈ $498M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guizhou Transp Planning is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Transp Planning are ¥−1.25. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The dividend yield of Guizhou Transp Planning is 1.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The net margin of Guizhou Transp Planning is −28.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guizhou Transp Planning is −13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guizhou Transp Planning is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
The operating margin of Guizhou Transp Planning is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Revenue at Guizhou Transp Planning is growing −24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guizhou Transp Planning (603458)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Transp Planning are growing −88.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guizhou Transp Planning (603458) carry?
The net debt of Guizhou Transp Planning is 120M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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