Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech ¥11.94, price ¥22.51, upside -47.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.38 – ¥28.06 · fair‑value band ¥7.92 – ¥18.38 · the ¥22.51 price screens above the ¥11.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. researches, develops, manufactures, sells, and services precision structural parts. The company also engages in precision die casting, forging, stamping, CNC, laser cutting, laser welding, MIM, precision injection molding.
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Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. researches, develops, manufactures, sells, and services precision structural parts. The company also engages in precision die casting, forging, stamping, CNC, laser cutting, laser welding, MIM, precision injection molding. In addition, the company offers consumer electronics products including shells, middle frames, middle plates, buttons, logos, and shaft (hinge) assemblies for terminal products such as smartphones, laptops, tablets, smart wearables, smart speakers, heat-not-burn electronic cigarette structural parts, and VR; medical device products include structural cigarette parts required for terminal products such as scalpels, bone screws, and pacemakers; energy storage products are mainly PACK module products; and automobiles, including new energy vehicles for well-known international and domestic customers such as Apple, Huawei, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Medtronic. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Kunshan, China.
Stock analysis
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) currently trades at ¥22.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.94, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥6.15 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥22.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.29, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥7.92 (bear) to ¥18.38 (bull), the price of ¥22.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was −351M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 12.5B CNY (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 97.9 · P/S ratio 2.85 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2300 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −11.2% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −47%, 603626 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.92Fair Value ¥11.94Bull ¥18.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1689 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.1% (2020) → −9.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.7% a year for the price.
Compare Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)97.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.98× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF13.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.94 versus a price of ¥22.51, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603626?
Our model-based fair value for Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is ¥11.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥22.51.
What is the quality score of 603626?
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.92, optimistic scenario ¥18.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.94, about −47% upside versus a price of ¥22.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.92, optimistic scenario ¥18.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech pay a dividend?
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech would have to grow free cash flow by +47.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603626 use?
Our models discount Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech that is +47.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +47.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (+47.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.07 %: that much free cash flow Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech it is ¥11.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥22.51. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603626 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥22.51, fair value ¥11.94, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603626?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥22.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.94). For Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech the two are ¥10.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech worth?
The market values Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech at about 12.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥22.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603626?
Our models span a range for Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech: cautious scenario ¥7.92, base ¥11.94, optimistic ¥18.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥22.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603626?
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 37.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603626 from its 52-week high?
Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech trades at ¥22.51, about 20% below its 52-week high of ¥28.06 and 97% above the low of ¥11.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥22.51, calculated fair value ¥11.94 (−47%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603626 calculated?
We run Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥22.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.94, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥18.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥7.92 to ¥18.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech
How large is the market capitalisation of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The market capitalisation of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is 12.5B CNY (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is 2.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Earnings per share at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech are ¥0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The dividend yield of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is 0.5% (payout 46.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The net margin of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is −11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
The operating margin of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is −12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Revenue at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is growing −9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626)?
Earnings per share at Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech are growing −1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech (603626) carry?
The net debt of Kunshan Kersen Science & Tech is 280M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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