Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd ¥1.01, price ¥8.58, upside -88.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.54 – ¥14.52 · fair‑value band ¥0.7100 – ¥1.45 · the ¥8.58 price screens above the ¥1.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd processes, produces, and sells wines in China. The company operates through two segments, Wine Production and Sales; and Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Production. It offers organic, red, white, green, rosé, sweet, and sparkling, as well as organic, traditional, and grape distilled wines; grape special wine; and brandy.
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WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd processes, produces, and sells wines in China. The company operates through two segments, Wine Production and Sales; and Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Production. It offers organic, red, white, green, rosé, sweet, and sparkling, as well as organic, traditional, and grape distilled wines; grape special wine; and brandy. The company is also engaged in grape and orange tree planting, as well as crop farming; and trading businesses. WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd was founded in 2007 and is based in Longkou, China.
Stock analysis
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) currently trades at ¥8.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.01, 88.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥1.58 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥8.58 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.2500, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7100 (bear) to ¥1.45 (bull), the price of ¥8.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd reported revenue of 363M CNY in FY2025 versus 474M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −63.1M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8B CNY (≈ $426M) · P/S ratio 7.87 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −17.4% · Return on equity −14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.9% · Operating margin −1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −88%, 603779 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2500 to ¥2.91). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.7100Fair Value ¥1.01Bull ¥1.45
Price ¥8.58 · Upside -88.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.5% (2019) → 6.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+71.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.4% a year for the price.
Compare Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 91 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603779
Frequently asked questions
Is Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.01 versus a price of ¥8.58, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603779?
Our model-based fair value for Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is ¥1.01 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.58.
What is the quality score of 603779?
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.01 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7100, optimistic scenario ¥1.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.01, about −88% upside versus a price of ¥8.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7100, optimistic scenario ¥1.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 341M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +71.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.5 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603779 use?
Our models discount Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd that is +71.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd grew -1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +71.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (+71.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.36 %: that much free cash flow Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd it is ¥1.01 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of ¥8.58. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 603779 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.58, fair value ¥1.01, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603779?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.01). For Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd the two are ¥7.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd worth?
The market values Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd at about 2.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.58; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603779?
Our models span a range for Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.7100, base ¥1.01, optimistic ¥1.45 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price ¥8.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −14.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603779 from its 52-week high?
Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd trades at ¥8.58, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥14.52 and 50% above the low of ¥5.73 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price ¥8.58, calculated fair value ¥1.01 (−88%), Quality Score 45/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603779 calculated?
We run Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was ¥8.58. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.01, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥0.7100 to ¥1.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) come from?
Earnings per share at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd grew −16.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.7 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The market capitalisation of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is 2.8B CNY (≈ $426M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is 7.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Earnings per share at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd are ¥−0.2200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The dividend yield of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The net margin of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is −17.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is −5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
The operating margin of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is −1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Revenue at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779)?
Earnings per share at Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779) carry?
The net debt of Wei Long Grape Wine Co Ltd is 104M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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