CSD Water Service Co (603903) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY

A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (¥3.85 to ¥7.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.36 – ¥17.27 · fair‑value band ¥3.85 – ¥7.74 · the ¥12.43 price screens above the ¥5.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

CSD Water Service Co (603903) currently trades at ¥12.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.69, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, CSD Water Service Co generated revenue of 1.0B CNY at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue declined 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.1%. Net debt stands at 641M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.85 (bear case) to ¥7.74 (bull case); at ¥12.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -54%, 603903 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥9.46) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

CSD Water Service Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides environmental services in China. The company offers municipal, industrial, and urban sewage treatment; industrial parks and wastewater treatment; environmental governance; industrial park environmental; groundwater pollution remediation; management of water environment; and sludge …

Full company description

CSD Water Service Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides environmental services in China. The company offers municipal, industrial, and urban sewage treatment; industrial parks and wastewater treatment; environmental governance; industrial park environmental; groundwater pollution remediation; management of water environment; and sludge treatment and disposal services. It also provides self-activated denitrification filters, integrated multi-effect clarification systems, CSD complexing-coagulation-adsorption defluoridation agents, ozone-enhanced biofiltration technologies, drum dynamic aerobic high-temperature fermentation treatment units under the SG-DACT brand, and dry anaerobic fermentation units under the DANAS brand. In addition, the company engages in the sale of sewage treatment agents, environmentally friendly products, and water treatment equipment; research and experimental development; water production and supply; chemical raw materials and products manufacturing; biomass gas production and supply; investment in sewage treatment related businesses; ecological protection; technology development and promotion of sewage treatment, sludge treatment, and organic waste treatment and disposal related technologies; and scientific research and technical services. Further, it is involved in management of environmental protection and public facilities; environmental protection engineering contracting; provision of environmental protection technical consultation, and technical development and support; sale of building materials, hardware and electrical appliances, and mechanical equipment; import and export of goods and technologies; construction project management; water pollution control; urban landscaping; municipal construction and planning consultation; construction engineering machinery and equipment leasing; and engineering survey and design. CSD Water Service Co., Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CSD Water Service Co reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥106M in FY2025.

603903 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →

Peer Group

Waste Management · 169 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.