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Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Csd Water Service Co Ltd ¥5.69, price ¥15.12, upside -62.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100002YD5

CW Some data Sep 24, 2026

Csd Water Service Co Ltd

603903 · SHG

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ¥5.69 · Strongly overvalued (−62%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

¥17.27 ¥5.36 Fair Value ¥5.69 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.36 – ¥17.27 · fair‑value band ¥3.64 – ¥7.74 · the ¥15.12 price screens above the ¥5.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

CSD Water Service Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides environmental services in China.

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CSD Water Service Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides environmental services in China. The company offers municipal, industrial, and urban sewage treatment; industrial parks and wastewater treatment; environmental governance; industrial park environmental; groundwater pollution remediation; management of water environment; and sludge treatment and disposal services. It also provides self-activated denitrification filters, integrated multi-effect clarification systems, CSD complexing-coagulation-adsorption defluoridation agents, ozone-enhanced biofiltration technologies, drum dynamic aerobic high-temperature fermentation treatment units under the SG-DACT brand, and dry anaerobic fermentation units under the DANAS brand. In addition, the company engages in the sale of sewage treatment agents, environmentally friendly products, and water treatment equipment; research and experimental development; water production and supply; chemical raw materials and products manufacturing; biomass gas production and supply; investment in sewage treatment related businesses; ecological protection; technology development and promotion of sewage treatment, sludge treatment, and organic waste treatment and disposal related technologies; and scientific research and technical services. Further, it is involved in management of environmental protection and public facilities; environmental protection engineering contracting; provision of environmental protection technical consultation, and technical development and support; sale of building materials, hardware and electrical appliances, and mechanical equipment; import and export of goods and technologies; construction project management; water pollution control; urban landscaping; municipal construction and planning consultation; construction engineering machinery and equipment leasing; and engineering survey and design. CSD Water Service Co., Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) currently trades at ¥15.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.69, implying the stock looks roughly 165.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: ¥3.64 (bear) to ¥7.74 (bull), the price of ¥15.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Csd Water Service Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was −106M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.9B CNY (≈ $576M) · P/S ratio 3.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3500 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin −10.3% · Return on equity −8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 27.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −62%, 603903 screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 73
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.7% (2020) → 12.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.0% a year for the price.

603903 screens 166% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.36× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)42 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $207.68 $228.45 +10%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $213.88 $128.02 −40%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN $155.42 $170.96 +10%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €31.56 €24.17 −23%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $312.85 $155.37 −50%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL $42.34 $34.72 −18%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €10.72 €7.30 −32%
Umicore SA UMI €21.70 €25.28 +16%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST $85.76 $14.75 −83%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.26 ¥5.27 −16%

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Csd Water Service Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥5.69 −166%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Csd Water Service Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603903

Frequently asked questions

Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.69 versus a price of ¥15.12, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603903?
Our model-based fair value for Csd Water Service Co Ltd is ¥5.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.12.
What is the quality score of 603903?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.64, optimistic scenario ¥7.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.69, about −62% upside versus a price of ¥15.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.64, optimistic scenario ¥7.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Csd Water Service Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Csd Water Service Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603903 use?
Our models discount Csd Water Service Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Csd Water Service Co Ltd that is +13.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Csd Water Service Co Ltd grew -8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Csd Water Service Co Ltd (+13.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.72 %: that much free cash flow Csd Water Service Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Csd Water Service Co Ltd it is ¥5.69 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥15.12. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603903 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.12, fair value ¥5.69, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603903?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.69). For Csd Water Service Co Ltd the two are ¥9.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Csd Water Service Co Ltd worth?
The market values Csd Water Service Co Ltd at about 3.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603903?
Our models span a range for Csd Water Service Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.64, base ¥5.69, optimistic ¥7.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥15.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Balance-sheet figures for Csd Water Service Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.1%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603903 from its 52-week high?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd trades at ¥15.12, about 12% below its 52-week high of ¥17.27 and 47% above the low of ¥10.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Csd Water Service Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥15.12, calculated fair value ¥5.69 (−62%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603903 calculated?
We run Csd Water Service Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Csd Water Service Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥15.12. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.69, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Csd Water Service Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥3.64 to ¥7.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) come from?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd grew +9.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Csd Water Service Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The market capitalisation of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 3.9B CNY (≈ $576M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 3.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd are ¥−0.3500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The dividend yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The net margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is −10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The operating margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 27.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Revenue at Csd Water Service Co Ltd is growing −9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd are growing +600% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) carry?
The net debt of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 641M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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