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Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock ¥5.69, price ¥11.77, that is 51.7% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100002YD5

CW Csd Water Service Co Ltd logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Csd Water Service Co Ltd

603903 · SHG
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 52% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 53/100
Some data
Revenue last quarter 31% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥5.69 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.8 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -10.9% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/13)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥17.27 ¥5.36 Fair Value ¥5.69 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.36 – ¥17.27 · fair‑value band ¥3.64 – ¥7.74 · the ¥11.77 price screens above the ¥5.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

CSD Water Service Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides environmental services in China.

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The company offers municipal, industrial, and urban sewage treatment; industrial parks and wastewater treatment; environmental governance; industrial park environmental; groundwater pollution remediation; management of water environment; and sludge treatment and disposal services.

It also provides self-activated denitrification filters, integrated multi-effect clarification systems, CSD complexing-coagulation-adsorption defluoridation agents, ozone-enhanced biofiltration technologies, drum dynamic aerobic high-temperature fermentation treatment units under the SG-DACT brand, and dry anaerobic fermentation units under the DANAS brand.

In addition, the company engages in the sale of sewage treatment agents, environmentally friendly products, and water treatment equipment; research and experimental development; water production and supply; chemical raw materials and products manufacturing; biomass gas production and supply; investment in sewage treatment related businesses; ecological protection; technology development and promotion of sewage treatment, sludge treatment, and organic waste treatment and disposal related technologies; and scientific research and technical services.

Further, it is involved in management of environmental protection and public facilities; environmental protection engineering contracting; provision of environmental protection technical consultation, and technical development and support; sale of building materials, hardware and electrical appliances, and mechanical equipment; import and export of goods and technologies; construction project management; water pollution control; urban landscaping; municipal construction and planning consultation; construction engineering machinery and equipment leasing; and engineering survey and design.

CSD Water Service Co., Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) currently trades at ¥11.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.69, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥10.46 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥11.77 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.20, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥3.64 (bear) to ¥7.74 (bull), the price of ¥11.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Csd Water Service Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was −106M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $450M) Small · P/S ratio 3.24 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3700 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −10.9% · Return on equity −8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −52%, 603903 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.64 Fair Value ¥5.69 Bull ¥7.74
Price ¥11.77 · Downside -51.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF ¥8.43 ¥12.02 ¥16.72 81
Growth DCF ¥8.58 ¥11.82 ¥15.84 79
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.97 ¥10.51 ¥14.44 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥8.43 ¥12.02 ¥16.72 81
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.48 ¥7.82 ¥10.63 73
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.97 ¥10.51 ¥14.44 75
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.49 ¥8.74 ¥11.45 68
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.48 ¥10.46 ¥14.08 69
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥3.07 ¥3.59 ¥4.03 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥3.64 ¥5.69 ¥7.74 65
EV/EBITDA ¥5.01 ¥7.52 ¥10.02 66
EV/Revenue ¥1.88 ¥3.76 ¥5.64 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.8900 ¥1.20 ¥1.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥8.58 ¥11.82 ¥15.84 79
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.48 ¥7.96 ¥10.73 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥3.07 ¥3.59 ¥4.03 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 7
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 80
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 33
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 53
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 34
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 73
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.9% (2019) → −14.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price.

603903 screens overvalued: fair value 52% below the price. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −51.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −30.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.36× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.13× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.23× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 16.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 45.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)45 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Waste Management, Inc WM $236.26 $259.89 +10% vs 603903
Waste Connections, Inc WCN $189.07 $199.18 +5% vs 603903
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €10.42 €9.99 −4% vs 603903
GEM Co 002340 ¥5.81 ¥5.27 −9% vs 603903
GFL Environmental Inc GFL $46.32 $34.54 −25% vs 603903
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €33.78 €20.39 −40% vs 603903
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $284.10 $155.54 −45% vs 603903
Republic Services, Inc RSG $246.85 $129.29 −48% vs 603903
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY A$3.01 A$1.25 −58% vs 603903
Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST $98.21 $14.30 −85% vs 603903

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Csd Water Service Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Csd Water Service Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603903

Frequently asked questions

Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.69 versus a price of ¥11.77, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603903?
Our model-based fair value for Csd Water Service Co Ltd is ¥5.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.77.
What is the quality score of 603903?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.64, optimistic scenario ¥7.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.69, about 52% lower versus a price of ¥11.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.64, optimistic scenario ¥7.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 930M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Csd Water Service Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 2.2%.
What growth is priced into Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Csd Water Service Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603903 use?
Our models discount Csd Water Service Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Csd Water Service Co Ltd that is +9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Csd Water Service Co Ltd grew -8.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Csd Water Service Co Ltd (+9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.07 %: that much free cash flow Csd Water Service Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Csd Water Service Co Ltd it is ¥5.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥11.77. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 603903 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.77, fair value ¥5.69, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603903?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.69). For Csd Water Service Co Ltd the two are ¥6.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Csd Water Service Co Ltd worth?
The market values Csd Water Service Co Ltd at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.77; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603903?
Our models span a range for Csd Water Service Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.64, base ¥5.69, optimistic ¥7.74 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥11.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Balance-sheet figures for Csd Water Service Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −8.4%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603903 from its 52-week high?
Csd Water Service Co Ltd trades at ¥11.77, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥17.27 and 14% above the low of ¥10.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Csd Water Service Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Csd Water Service Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥11.77, calculated fair value ¥5.69 (−52%), Quality Score 53/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603903 calculated?
We run Csd Water Service Co Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥5.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Csd Water Service Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥11.77. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.69, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Csd Water Service Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥3.64 to ¥7.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) come from?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd grew +9.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Csd Water Service Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The market capitalisation of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 3.0B CNY (≈ $450M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 3.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd are ¥−0.3700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The dividend yield of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The net margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is −10.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is −8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
The operating margin of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Revenue at Csd Water Service Co Ltd is growing −30.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903)?
Earnings per share at Csd Water Service Co Ltd are growing +600% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Csd Water Service Co Ltd (603903) carry?
The net debt of Csd Water Service Co Ltd is 641M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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