Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd ¥22.08, price ¥58.59, upside -62.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.48 – ¥88.46 · fair‑value band ¥16.13 – ¥28.03 · the ¥58.59 price screens above the ¥22.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Xiangyang Changyuandonggu Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of diesel engine components in China.
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Xiangyang Changyuandonggu Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of diesel engine components in China. The company offers cylinder blocks and heads; connecting rods; and other parts, including flywheel housings, gear chambers, exhaust pipe series products, and main bearing caps, as well as gearbox housings for front, middle, and rear side. It serves engine and vehicle manufacturers. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Xiangyang, China.
Stock analysis
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950) currently trades at ¥58.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥22.08, implying the stock looks roughly 165.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥26.09 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥58.59 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥4.45, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥16.13 (bear) to ¥28.03 (bull), the price of ¥58.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was 389M CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.0B CNY (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 48.4 · P/S ratio 8.35 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.21 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −62%, 603950 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥16.13Fair Value ¥22.08Bull ¥28.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.7900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 19%
2025 sits 79% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 699 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)48.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.42× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA27.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603950
Frequently asked questions
Is Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥22.08 versus a price of ¥58.59, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603950?
Our model-based fair value for Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is ¥22.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥58.59.
What is the quality score of 603950?
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥22.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥16.13, optimistic scenario ¥28.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥22.08, about −62% upside versus a price of ¥58.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥16.13, optimistic scenario ¥28.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd it is ¥22.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥58.59. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603950 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥58.59, fair value ¥22.08, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603950?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥58.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥22.08). For Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd the two are ¥36.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd at about 19.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥58.59; our models calculate a fair value of ¥22.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603950?
Our models span a range for Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥16.13, base ¥22.08, optimistic ¥28.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥58.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603950?
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥22.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.3, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 27.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603950 from its 52-week high?
Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd trades at ¥58.59, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥88.46 and 109% above the low of ¥28.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥22.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥58.59, calculated fair value ¥22.08 (−62%), Quality Score 53/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603950 calculated?
We run Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥22.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥58.59. Our model-based fair value is ¥22.08, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥28.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The market capitalisation of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 19.0B CNY (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 8.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Earnings per share at Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd are ¥1.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The dividend yield of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 10.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The net margin of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
The operating margin of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Revenue at Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950)?
Earnings per share at Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd are growing +4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950) generate?
The free cash flow of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is −52.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd (603950) carry?
The net debt of Xiangyang Changyuan Donggu Industry Co Ltd is 556M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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