Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tianjin Silvery Dragon stock ¥4.67, price ¥6.00, that is 22.2% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.58 – ¥11.41 · fair‑value band ¥2.85 – ¥7.11 · the ¥6.00 price screens above the ¥4.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin, together with its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures and sells prestressed steel products in China and internationally.
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The company offers prestressed materials comprising galvanized (aluminum) wires for bridge cables, PC strands for wind power concrete towers, prestressed galvanized (aluminum) strands for photovoltaic, unbonded galvanized strands for hydropower, strands for nuclear power plant safety shells and low temperature LNG/LPG, prestressing systems of high-speed railway track slabs, PC wires for railway sleepers and PCCP pipelines, and PC bars for t-shaped continuous beams.
It also provides prestressed concrete products for track slabs; new energy materials products, such as prestressed flexible large-span suspension photovoltaic support systems, flexible photovoltaic support prestressed anchors, and flexible photovoltaic bracket side slopes; automation equipment; and precision steel molds for track slabs, sleepers, and pipe segments.
In addition, the company offers project management information and intelligent monitoring systems, such as 3D displacement intelligent monitoring systems for construction engineering, seamless rail crawling monitoring systems, railway seamless rail stress release and locking construction management systems, concrete product production management systems for rail transit, PCCP water pipeline production management systems, and wind power concrete tower intelligent monitoring systems.
It serves the rail transit, highways, railways, water conservancy, new energy, construction, and other sectors.
Further, the company is also involved in new energy project investment; trading; technology development and technical consulting; technical services; and power generation and transmission activities. It exports its products.
The company was formerly known as Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co.,LTD Tianjin and changed its name to Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin in December 2025. Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin was f
Stock analysis
Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) currently trades at ¥6.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.67, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥6.51 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥6.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.38, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.85 (bear) to ¥7.11 (bull), the price of ¥6.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tianjin Silvery Dragon reported revenue of 3.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 366M CNY in FY2025, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.1B CNY (≈ $765M) Small · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5000 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −22%, 603969 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.85Fair Value ¥4.67Bull¥7.11
Price ¥6.00 · Downside -22.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3687 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.7% vs 9.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 15%
2025 sits 115% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.67 versus a price of ¥6.00, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603969?
Our model-based fair value for Tianjin Silvery Dragon is ¥4.67 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.00.
What is the quality score of 603969?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.67 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.85, optimistic scenario ¥7.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tianjin Silvery Dragon stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.67, about 22% lower versus a price of ¥6.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.85, optimistic scenario ¥7.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Tianjin Silvery Dragon pay a dividend?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon currently shows a dividend yield of 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon pays a dividend of ¥0.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 14.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.69 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tianjin Silvery Dragon would have to grow free cash flow by +30.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603969 use?
Our models discount Tianjin Silvery Dragon at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tianjin Silvery Dragon that is +30.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tianjin Silvery Dragon grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tianjin Silvery Dragon (+30.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Tianjin Silvery Dragon produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tianjin Silvery Dragon it is ¥4.67 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of ¥6.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tianjin Silvery Dragon stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 603969 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.00, fair value ¥4.67, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603969?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.67). For Tianjin Silvery Dragon the two are ¥1.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tianjin Silvery Dragon worth?
The market values Tianjin Silvery Dragon at about 5.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.00; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603969?
Our models span a range for Tianjin Silvery Dragon: cautious scenario ¥2.85, base ¥4.67, optimistic ¥7.11 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price ¥6.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603969?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥4.67 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.8. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tianjin Silvery Dragon (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603969 from its 52-week high?
Tianjin Silvery Dragon trades at ¥6.00, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥11.41 and 8% above the low of ¥5.57 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tianjin Silvery Dragon?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tianjin Silvery Dragon stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price ¥6.00, calculated fair value ¥4.67 (−22%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603969 calculated?
We run Tianjin Silvery Dragon through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥4.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tianjin Silvery Dragon itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥6.00. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.67, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tianjin Silvery Dragon right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥2.85 to ¥7.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) come from?
Earnings per share at Tianjin Silvery Dragon grew +1.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tianjin Silvery Dragon
How large is the market capitalisation of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The market capitalisation of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 5.1B CNY (≈ $765M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 1.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Earnings per share at Tianjin Silvery Dragon are ¥0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The dividend yield of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 1.2% (payout 14.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The net margin of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
The operating margin of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Revenue at Tianjin Silvery Dragon is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969)?
Earnings per share at Tianjin Silvery Dragon are growing −16.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tianjin Silvery Dragon (603969) carry?
The net debt of Tianjin Silvery Dragon is 426M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026